development
New fronts in the Frontier
With the exploration of more oil and gas reserves in NWFP, the denial of gas supply to the producing districts is likely to become more politicised in the days to come
By Raza Khan
Provincial royalty and gas development surcharge on gas production have always been associated with Balochistan. In the last few years though, after the oil and gas production from fields in NWFP, a lot of hue and cry has been raised by the local population, especially regarding rights that have been expressly provided in the constitution.

Newswatch
The horrors of mass tourism
By Kaleem Omar
I know this is supposed to be 'Visit Pakistan' year, and that the Ministry of Tourism -- headed by the redoubtable Ms Nilofer Bakhtiar of paragliding fame -- has chalked out an elaborate calendar of events aimed at attracting tourists to this country. I know, too, that government officials tend to go on and on about how tourism can earn valuable foreign exchange for the country. As far as I'm concerned, however, I wouldn't mind if we didn't earn a single dollar from tourism. I would much rather we earned our foreign exchange in some other way -- by exporting more camel-skin table lamps, for instance, or even more marble ashtrays.

re-evaluation
Budget innovations

While the devolution of power has brought about considerable change in the culture and procedures of municipal functioning, the process of budget making and financial planning needs a serious review and subsequent boost
By Dr Noman Ahmed
Hustle and bustle has already begun in the finance and budget sections of the various local government offices. The styles, approaches and strategies are found to be much the same as the previous run ups.

Tying the knot
Though Tokyo and Beijing want a stronger relationship, their ambitions coupled with the bitter memories may drive them afar
By Hussain H. Zaidi
Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao's recent landmark visit to Japan once again raises the question whether the two Asian giants can bury the hatchet and foster stronger commercial and diplomatic relations? The answer to this question consists looking at various dimensions of Sino-Japan relations: The past eclipses but never dies. This holds particularly true in case of Sino - Japan relations.

debate
Locating 'civil society'
Before the advent of a 'funded' civil society, a sense of social cohesion, feeling of togetherness, and communal affiliations, were the indigenous elements constituting civil society
By Tariq Bhatti
Civil society, a concept, as we understand it today, originated and evolved in a specific socio-cultural context with a distinct history.

US security concerns
Historically, arms and drugs played a pivotal role in US foreign policy to control groups and regimes. It is, therefore, not surprising if NWFP and FATA find a strategic place in achieving what the US calls victory in the 'war against terrorism'
By Dr Ikramul Haq
On March 7, during his farewell visit to the historic city of Peshawar, the outgoing US Ambassador to Pakistan, Ryan C. Crocker, stressed "long-term commitment to security and development" in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). He ignored Provincially Administered Tribal Areas (PATA), which are equally important and sensitive. Crocker emphasised that the United States should forge "multi-faceted and enduring relations with Pakistan" and reassured, "we are strongly committed to helping the people of Pakistan in our mutual fight against terrorism".

political economy
Winds of change?
Are we indeed looking for a democratic and civilian led-dispensation in the wake of the current judicial crisis?
By Ayesha Siddiqa
Many in Pakistan now imagine that winds of change have started to blow which will alter the political scene. The expectation is that the military general-president will finally have to concede power to some civilian dispensation and allow the restoration of democracy. The almost mass mobilisation of lawyers seems to have rejuvenated hope in the civil society's resilience to fight military-authoritarian rule.

Embedded democracy
Mutuality of interests has enabled the feudals to remain entangled in courtship with the establishment and use the influence and official support to ascend to power
By Alauddin Masood
Participatory democracy remains a cherished goal of a vast majority of people in Pakistan, a country established through the democratic process of vote. Since policies are thrust upon the people, the chances for friction, agitation and turmoil are also minimal under this system.



Provincial royalty and gas development surcharge on gas production have always been associated with Balochistan. In the last few years though, after the oil and gas production from fields in NWFP, a lot of hue and cry has been raised by the local population, especially regarding rights that have been expressly provided in the constitution.

The differences between Karak and Kohat districts and the federal government.gained more prominence after the recent stay order (The News, April 7, 2007) by the Peshawar High Court (PHC) restraining the Oil and Gas Development Company Limited (OGDCL) and Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL) from supplying gas to Punjab from Gurguri, Makori and Chanda fields. The stay order came on the constitutional petition submitted by District Nazim Kohat and 20 Union Council Nazims.

The petitioners contended that commercial supply of gas to Punjab from the gas fields of Kohat and Karak districts commenced around two years ago while the said districts still await gas supply from the local wells. This they termed as "injustice with the people of Kohat and Karak as well as of NWFP".

On their part, OGDCL and SNGPL authorities refuse to admit that any such order was passed by the PHC. Instead, the spokesmen of both the departments said that the court only admitted the case to full hearing because the respondents failed to file the parawise comments within two months.

The main argument of the petitioners rests round the preferential treatment of districts and areas from where the gas is procured. They are of the view that this right is protected by Article 158 of the Constitution which states: "The province in which a well-head of natural gas is situated shall have precedence over other parts of Pakistan in meeting the requirements from that well-head..."

Since the case is now sub judice it is upto the court to interpret this constitutional provision.

The principal petitioner, District Nazim Kohat, Gohar Saifullah Khan, while talking to TNS said: "Our initial demand from OGDCL and SNGPL was the supply of gas in five kilometres radius of Shakardara area. The concerned departments assured us that they would provide gas to the entire area but this never happened."

Thus people were compelled to enter into litigation for their rights through their local representatives.

Syed Iftikhar Hussain Geelani, the petitioner's counsel stated before the court that the projected output capacity of the fields located in Karak and Kohat districts was 382 million cubic feet a day (mcfd), whereas the total requirement of Kohat is 10 mcfd and that of the entire NWFP is 295 mcfd. Hence, Gohar said, they now demand gas supply to the entire province.

When contacted, General Manager SNGPL Peshawar region, Syed Muhammad Hasnain told TNS that steps were being taken to supply gas to Kohat and Karak district. "It takes time to fulfil such an uphill task. Otherwise, wherever possible, gas supply in the said areas has been completed by now."

Efforts were made to contact the relevant authorities at SNGPL head office in Lahore for their view, but they were unavailable.

Gradually, people have started realising the worth of oil and gas reserves and the phenomenal change it could bring in the largely unsophisticated lifestyles of poverty-stricken people of the arid land. Therefore, in local community meetings pronounced demands for gas royalty and development are increasingly being made.

According to Gohar Saifullah, the provincial government has been getting 2.5 per cent share of proceeds from gas fields located in the area ever since the commercial supply of gas began from fields in Karak and Kohat districts. However, he complained, the MMA government had not given even a single rupee to the district governments out of that money.

District Nazim Karak, Rehmat Salam Khattak told TNS the people are united in the demand for not only supply of gas to the whole area but also infrastructure development in the areas from where oil and gas is being extracted and the surrounding towns and villages. "The Khattak tribe has gathered on the platform of an organisation called Khattak Ittehad (Khattak Union) to advocate its case."

When asked why the government is not supplying gas to the Kohat and Karak, he informed that the concerned department, SNGPL, is ready to bear the cost of each connection up to a certain level. However, the cost is more than what SNGPL can bear. The provincial government has also not agreed to bear this additional cost.

Karak and Kohat are important, albeit poor districts of NWFP. Now experts are hoping to discover more reservoirs of oil and gas with huge production capacity. According to Rehmat Salam Khattak the results of gas exploration in Karak have been most productive as three wells were dug and gas has been found in all three of them. Therefore, there are very bright chances of finding more gas reserves in the area.

With the exploration of more oil and gas in Kohat and Karak districts and other areas in Frontier, the problem of denial of legitimate rights of supply of gas and infrastructure development may get more acute. Though no parallel of Dera Bugti at present, the issue does have a strong politico-economic dimension -- already being seen in the context of a small province-versus-federation problem.

With nationalist parties like the Awami National Party (ANP) and Pakhtoonkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP) jumping into the fray to lead the public sentiments, there are great chances the issue would get further prominence. The ANP has already held a seminar on the issue in the area. Meetings with people and parties are going on to educate the people regarding their rights and the provincial share regarding oil and gas production.

After the provincial claim of billions of rupees of unpaid share in hydroelectric power profits, issues related to gas exploration are certainly new. The nationalist parties are looking at it as a 'serious' problem and contend the establishment is trying to exploit the oil and gas resources of Pakhtoon land for development and use of non-Pakhtoon areas. Besides keeping the areas undeveloped, Talibanisation trends are also getting a spurt. The phenomenon of Talibanisation has emerged strongly in Kohat in particular where of late a number of CD shops have been bombed and girls educational institutions have been getting constant threats.

Independent analysts believe that gas reserves in the area could trigger an industrial revolution in the Pakhtoon land including the adjoining FATA thus helping them to adequately catch up with the developed provinces of Pakistan.

The exploration and subsequent production of oil and gas in Karak and Kohat districts by fulfilling the energy needs could also play an instrumental role in making the American idea of Reconstruction Opportunity Zones (ROZs) on the Pak-Afghan border a roaring success. The ROZs are meant to provide local population of Frontier jobs and allied economic opportunities mainly aimed at development of the area and reversing the trend of Talibanisation. The oil fields of Karak and Kohat are located near the Durand Line and therefore have a locational advantage to become economic zones. One of the main gas producing area, Gurguri, is almost on the border of troubled North Waziristan.

(The writer is a journalist and researcher:

Email: razapkhan@yahoo.com)


Newswatch
The horrors of mass tourism
 

I know this is supposed to be 'Visit Pakistan' year, and that the Ministry of Tourism -- headed by the redoubtable Ms Nilofer Bakhtiar of paragliding fame -- has chalked out an elaborate calendar of events aimed at attracting tourists to this country. I know, too, that government officials tend to go on and on about how tourism can earn valuable foreign exchange for the country. As far as I'm concerned, however, I wouldn't mind if we didn't earn a single dollar from tourism. I would much rather we earned our foreign exchange in some other way -- by exporting more camel-skin table lamps, for instance, or even more marble ashtrays.

Tourism, both domestic and foreign, has already played havoc with some of the most beautiful parts of the country. Tourists have ruined Murree, have ruined much of Nathiagalli, have ruined Kalam in Swat (where there are now something like 300 ramshackle wooden hotels -- hotuls -- catering to swarms of litter-throwing tourists), and are now in the process of ruining places of such ethereal beauty as Hunza and the Shyok Valley.

Do we really want tourists to ruin whatever is left of the beauty of our mountain regions? No, no, no, I say, a thousand times no, we most certainly do not. So, let's export more marble ashtrays and camel-skin table lamps, I say, even if we have to go to Fiji or Pago Pago to find markets for them. We may not be able to sell many marble ashtrays or camel-skin lamps, but by opting to earn our foreign exchange that way, we will at least be able to keep the horrors of mass tourism at bay a little while longer.

At the international level, one good thing that has happened in the years since 9/11 is the decline in mass tourism. The trend is unlikely to be reversed in a hurry, what with the continuing fallout from the US invasion and occupation of Afghanistan and Iraq, and the possibility that the Bush administration may be contemplating more attacks on who knows how many other countries. Tourists don't much like travelling when bombs are falling on their heads, or may be about to start falling.

I say the decline in mass tourism is a good thing because mass tourism is an idea that has turned much of the world into a hideous melange of overcrowded resorts, garish high-rise hotels, plasticised fast-food joints, tacky souvenir shops, sleazy nightclubs, and that peculiarly American invention: the theme park. In California, there is now even a theme park about theme parks that bills itself as a sort of all-in-one theme park.

Luckily, we, in this country, have so far largely been spared such horrors. As Isobel Shaw has noted in her 'Guide to Trekking in Pakistan', "Pakistan is one of the best kept tourism secrets in the world." And it's just as well that it is, otherwise we, too, would have become a giant theme park by now. It could be, however, that the barbarians may soon be at the gates.

The government, in its infinite wisdom, wants to push tourism -- to put Pakistan on the tourism map of the world, as it were. But I say, let's keep it off the map, unless, of course, we want hordes of tourists descending on these shores like a plague of locusts.

Earning our foreign exchange through mass tourism would be at the cost of destroying the beauty of this country's landscape. In my book, that would be far too high a price to pay for earning a few million dollars.

As it is, many of the most beautiful places in Pakistan have already fallen victim to what is euphemistically called development. Take Murree, for example. Once known as 'The Queen of Hill Stations', it now looks more like a scene from a documentary film about urban blight, rather than a place people visit to enjoy the beauty of nature and find peace and quiet.

I am reminded, here, of some lines from a poem by Vachel Lindsay: "Then up around the apple earth they come,/Blasting the whispers of the morning dumb,/Cars in a plain, realistic row,/And fair dreams fade when the raw horns blow."

Do we want our fair dreams to fade, too? Do we want long lines of tourist-carrying coaches crawling up the Kaghan Valley? I, for one, say, no, we most certainly do not.

The British invented the concept of the Grand Tour, a term used by well-heeled Brits in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries for extended swings through Europe: from capital to capital and fashionable spa to spa. 'Taking the Tour', it was called, with a subtext that had fashionable ladies talking about 'Taking the Waters'. But it was the Americans -- the inventors of mass production, mass communications and that elusive something called 'mass happiness' -- that invented mass tourism.

By the mid-1950s hordes of gum-chewing, camera-toting, dollar bills-flashing, loudmouthed American tourists clad in Bermuda shorts and biliously patterned Hawaiian bush shirts had begun to descend on Europe. In the decades that followed, the Germans, the Japanese and others all got in on the act.

Mass tourism soon spawned its own jargon. In tourist jargon, people don't go from here to there; they are 'transferred'. Thus, a tourist group's itinerary will say 'Saturday, 5 pm: transfer from airport to hotel. Sunday, 8 am: transfer from hotel to airport.' "What's that over there?" a tourist will ask as the transfer coach races along on its way to the airport. "That? That's the Eiffel Tower," the guide will reply. "And that structure over there, that's the Louvre."

In tourist jargon, places are known as 'destinations' (as in "Pukhet is a great destination"); customers in restaurants and hotel dining rooms are 'covers' (as in "We did 200 breakfast covers, 300 lunch covers and 400 dinner covers today"); and all days -- even boiling hot days or soaking wet ones -- are 'nice days' (as in that perfectly ghastly Americanism "Have a nice day").

In the old days, people were travellers; nowadays, they're tourists. Tourists are a very different kettle of fish to travellers. Travellers were solitary individuals who wandered the world in search of knowledge and adventure, bringing to the quest a mix of scholarship, curiosity and appreciation of natural beauty that they passed on to posterity in the form of written accounts of their journeys.

Tourists, by contrast, are people with a herd instinct. They are never happier than when they are in crowds -- the bigger the better. Their idea of paradise is a beach with a million other tourists all packed together like so many sardines. Acres of peeling flesh may be good for the sun-block-lotion business, but it has done less than nothing to further the cause of good travel writing or scholarship.

Travellers used to make their way through foreign lands at a leisurely pace, taking time along the way to learn about local customs, history and culture. Tourists, however, operate on the principle that if it's Tuesday, it must be Belgium -- and what most tourists know about the countries -- sorry, 'destinations' -- they visit could be written on the head of a pin with room to spare.

If this is progress, you can keep it. Give me old-style travel anytime -- lazy days on horseback along the fabled Golden Road to Samarkand, or blissfully peaceful days spent floating down the Mississippi on a paddle steamer, or days spent trekking under louring mountain skies along some precipitous trail in the Karakorams, a region that the famous 1920s British explorer Eric Shipton called "perhaps the ultimate manifestation of mountain grandeur in the world."


re-evaluation
Budget innovations
While the devolution of power has brought about considerable change in the culture and procedures of municipal functioning, the process of budget making and financial planning needs a serious review and subsequent boost
 

Hustle and bustle has already begun in the finance and budget sections of the various local government offices. The styles, approaches and strategies are found to be much the same as the previous run ups.

The babus -- who possess a sound knowledge about the routine files and their locations -- are being pampered to compile the complex budget estimates. They apply a standard recipe. The estimates of the last financial year are plainly inflated by certain percentage. In some cases, a figure or more are exaggerated where insiders already predict for a possible high allocation. Also, the wishes of the concerned nazims (and their clandestine bosses) are given due representation.

The remaining process comprises cobbling of the figures with high sounding statements. While the devolution of power has brought about considerable change in the culture and procedures of municipal functioning, the process of budget making and financial planning needs a serious review and subsequent boost. Needless to say that without financially independent local government units, functional independence cannot be acquired.

An important pre-requisite to budget making is performance evaluation. In financial respect, it is found that most of the local institutions, especially City District Governments (that exist in large cities) have been left at the mercy of federal government. After the abolition of octroi (tax on the ingress of goods) in 1999, the local bodies -- at least in large cities -- have become completely dependent on federal and provincial transfers. The same is reflected in the budget making exercises.

When the defunct municipal corporations were existing, the revenue and expenditure used to have a rational relationship. The locally collected revenue base was the most essential component of the functioning of local bodies. The corporations used to raise project proposals only for mega projects of extraordinary nature towards federal government. It is disappointing to note that ever since the devolution plan was enforced, the district governments were converted into completely dependent units that function on the whims of federal government.

For example, the budget volume of the previous financial year was Rs. 42 billion in Karachi. Whereas no independent analysis is available, it can be safely concluded that more than two thirds of the money came from Islamabad or inter-agency financial adjustments. One does not expect any changes in the present financial year as no homework or policy statement has been issued to this date to bolster the local revenue. It must be remembered that if CDGK shall continue to act as a satellite of the federal government and would not attempt to acquire the autonomy that is anticipated in Local Government Ordinance, it will not be able to fulfil its mandate which is given the citizens of this city.

Preparation of local budget is an important technical exercise that requires exhaustive base work by multitude of departments, technical and financial experts and even external reviewers. Merit criteria of a sound local body budget comprises relative accuracy in computation of financial values; inclusion of all the existing and potential heads of revenue and expenditure; appropriate translation of policy framework laid down by the regime into workable budgetary formats; correctness of budget totals and figures; cautious review of the probabilities of capital receipts; scrutiny of taxes for their recoveries and solid justification of the expenditures for developmental and non-developmental heads.

Whereas each of these factors requires a massive factual spadework without wishful thinking or speculations, the indications reveal a different scenario. One finds the regimes only unveiling wish lists of various kinds. The case of Karachi offers an interesting citation. Import of 8000 buses, creation of model stadium complexes, most modern bus and terminal facilities, development of elevated transit ways, new fruit and vegetable markets and the like are the ones that are being deliberated without scientific basis.

Interestingly, the CDGK is also busy preparing a master plan for Karachi which is again taken up as a 'project'. It must be understood that master plan of a city is a comprehensive document which is continuously updated as the dynamics of the city change. It can not be reduced to the limited scope of a project!

An interesting feature of budget announcement is the citation of 'all good' factors only. The budget is never unveiled with an objectively formulated performance review. At best it is a bundle of promises studded with figures and assumptions. This measure renders the budget largely unscientific.

A professionally developed performance evaluation document shall enable the local bodies management critically review the priorities and performance before finalising the allocation heads. It will also be useful for the lower tiers of the present local government system to understand the local level situation thereby incorporating it into their respective budget overlays. In the absence of such an exercise, the budget document is criticised in the district council either around political motives or affiliations or for purely individual reasons. It may be remembered that objective review of performance that leads to a self analysis is always useful to understand the strengths and weaknesses of the system.

It is normally assumed that budget preparation only refers to the balancing of figures. Contrarily, the exercise enables the administrators and policy makers to assess the possibility of introducing innovations to affect the income and expenditures. For example, in a tehsil municipal administration, the establishment cost was found to be 80 per cent of the total budget. This acute shortage of funds did not even leave enough funds for the acquisition of basic props and supplies to sweep the streets or maintain the drains. The local supervisor of sweepers came up with an innovative idea. He discussed the matter with the area residents, shop keepers and property owners. During the process, they agreed that if the supervisor would provide the labour force, the area community would contribute for brooms and other supplies through mutual contributions. The collaboration is smoothly working eversince without costing an extra penny to the exchequer.

A very vital issue in the budgeting exercise is the financial capacity building of Union Councils, the lowest tier in service delivery. This lowest tier of governance has faced numerous problems in carrying out its routine functions. Scarcity of funds, lack of access to qualified human resource to carry out routine functions and absence of basic management capacity have been the continuing ailments in Union Councils.

As the elected representatives were not even given honoraria against the discharge of routine works, they suffered from lack of motivation. As per practice, the Union Council have entirely depended upon the financial assistance from the district governments. The respective Local Government Ordinance provides for many types of taxes and levies that can help raise the financial capacity of respective Union Councils.

There are many good practices existing in different parts of the country which can be disseminated to shore up the initiatives amongst the UCs. National Re-Construction Bureau (NRB) is required to play a more pro-active role to support this much needed input.

Chinese Prime Minister Wen Jiabao's recent landmark visit to Japan once again raises the question whether the two Asian giants can bury the hatchet and foster stronger commercial and diplomatic relations? The answer to this question consists looking at various dimensions of Sino-Japan relations: The past eclipses but never dies. This holds particularly true in case of Sino - Japan relations.

The ties between the two countries have been acrimonious in the past. Japan's invasion of China before World War II and the subsequent atrocities are a painful memory for the Chinese. That Japan's World War II aggression is a very sensitive issue for China is evident from the fact that the Chinese leadership had refused to meet Japan's former Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi for his frequent visits to a controversial Japanese shrine. The shrine honours Japan's martyrs including those who were killed during the World War II. In 2005, demonstrations were staged in a number of Chinese cities mainly to protest Mr Koizumi's shrine visits and Japan's history textbooks, which allegedly downplay Japanese 'excesses' during the World War II.

Beijing has often accused Tokyo of not atoning for its past mistakes. The accusation was renewed by the Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao in his address to the Diet, Japan's parliament.

On the other hand, in a track-II effort, academics from the two countries chosen by their respective governments have undertaken the exercise to resolve the divergent interpretations of their shared past. Whether the effort will bear fruit or prove an exercise in futility, only time will tell.

However, the exercise has at least a two-fold significance. In the first place, it shows the concern on both sides to attenuate the painful memories of the past -- that pose serious obstacle(s) to fostering strong bilateral relations. In the second place, while the academics put their heads together to resolve past controversies, political leadership can grapple with the current issues.

Economically and commercially, Japan and China are at once competitors and partners. With a GDP of $ 4.9 trillion and $ 2.5 trillion, Japan and China are respectively the world's second and third largest economies. However, at its current pace of economic growth, China is set to overtake Japan. China has already overtaken Japan on the trade front. With exports and imports of $ 994 and $ 778 billion respectively, China is the second largest trading nation in the world and the largest in Asia, well ahead of Japan whose exports and imports are $ 590 and $ 524 billion respectively. In 2000, Japan accounted for 29 per cent of the total exports of Asia. And now its share has come down to 21 per cent. In comparison, the share of China in Asian exports has nearly doubled from 15 per cent in 2000 to 28 per cent. Against Japan's $ 865 billion foreign exchange reserves. China's forex reserves exceed $ one trillion. Japan ($ 108 billion) is however ahead of China ($ 74 billion) in export of commercial services.

China is Japan's second largest export market and the largest source of its imports accounting for 14 per cent of Japanese exports and 21 per cent of Japanese imports. Japan is the third largest market for Chinese exports and the largest source of Chinese imports. This makes China and Japan major trading partners. The bilateral trade is about $190 billion with China having a trade surplus of nearly $ 30 billion.

Both Japan and China are members of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec), a 21-member arrangement for trade and investment liberalisation, economic and technical cooperation, and business facilitation, also featuring the USA. Apec members collectively account for more than half of the world's GDP and nearly half of global trade. Within or outside the Apec framework, Japanese technology and expertise can help China sustain its high growth rate, a point also underscored by Mr Wen during his recent Japan visit.

In order to enhance their economic and trade power, Tokyo and Beijing are increasingly vying for markets and resources. An illustration of their intensifying competition was the 2004 clash over the route of an oil pipeline from large oilfields in Siberia. Japan wanted the pipeline to go to the port of Nakhodna in the east, while China wanted it to terminate in the city of Daqing. In the end, Japan prevailed. The route of maritime borders in the East China Sea is still the bone of contention. The region is potentially rich in oil and gas reserves.

Both China and Japan are seeking to have a diplomatic role commensurate with their economic and commercial strength. China is already a permanent member of the United Nations Security Council (UNSC), while Japan has the ambitions to become one. In order to increase its diplomatic influence, Japan has intensified its cooperation with the US. It may be mentioned that Tokyo and Washington have a defence pact dating back to 1951, which makes the US the protector of Japan's security and gives the former the right to have military bases in the latter's territory. It is in accordance with this treaty that the US has a strong military presence in Japan. The alliance is being further strengthened, particularly in view of nuclear 'threat' from North Korea and the Taiwan problem. 

The attempts to revise Japan's pacifist constitution are being seen as a major step towards an enhanced Japanese diplomatic role. Article 9 of the US-imposed constitution prohibits war as a 'sovereign right' of Japan and the 'threat or use of force as a means of settling international disputes.' The constitution also disallows Japan from engaging in collective self-defence. The proposed constitutional revision will allow Japan to maintain armed forces for self-defence as well actively take part in collective security operations.

Japan's ambitions to raise its diplomatic stature are interpreted by China to be a threat to its own. China has opposed Japan's candidature for a UNSC permanent seat and criticised the US for supporting Japanese membership efforts. It also does not look upon with approval the attempts to alter the pacifist character of Japanese constitution. On its part, Japan is wary of increased military spending by China and in its National Defence Programme Guidelines has termed Beijing a security problem.

North Korea's nuclear programme and Taiwan are the two major security issues in the East Asian region. Both these issues bear upon or have the potential to bear upon Tokyo-Beijing relations. Following the USA, Japan wants North Korea to put an end to its nuclear weapon programme and has adopted measures to punish North Korea economically.

China, which has been sympathetic towards the North Korean communist regime, supported the UNSC move to clamp sanctions on North Korea in October 2006 for forcing it to halt its nuclear weapon programme. Beijing could have killed the move simply by vetoing it. That it did not shows its desire to play a larger diplomatic role beyond its traditional relationship with Pyongyang's role matching a superpower in the making. Beijing has also played a significant role in hosting the six-party talks aimed at ensuring a nuclear free Korean Peninsula and in getting Pyongyang back to the talks. Better Sino-Japan relations are important for success of the six-party talks. In turn, a smooth six-party talk process can be instrumental in reducing tensions between Tokyo and Beijing.

In order to shore up its influence in the region, Beijing is also improving its relations with New Delhi. The two countries have vowed to double their trade to $40 billion by 2010 and are also trying to settle territorial dispute over the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, on which China stakes claim.

A flashpoint in East Asia is Taiwan. China regards Taiwan as a breakaway province, which has to be united with the mainland. In the event of a Chinese attempt to effect that union by the use of force, the US may jump in to defend Taiwan. The Taiwan Relations Act provides that the US shall make available to Taiwan defence articles and services necessary for the latter to maintain 'sufficient' self-defence. Since Japan is the nearest US base, it also in all probability will get involved in the conflict. Hence, not surprisingly Japan has declared Taiwan a security concern. And one strong reason for China's disapproval of attempts to alter the pacifist character of the Japanese constitution is the apprehension that Japan may get involved in a potential US-China conflict over Taiwan.

To sum up, for reasons economic and commercial it is in the interest of both Tokyo and Beijing to forge a stronger relationship. Paradoxically, the ambitions to match their diplomatic stature with their economic and commercial might coupled with the bitter memories of their shared past may drive them afar.

(e-mail:

hussainhzaidi@yahoo.com)


Civil society, a concept, as we understand it today, originated and evolved in a specific socio-cultural context with a distinct history.

Over the past two decades, the concept of 'civil society' has found massive global favour. Civil society as a distinct social entity came into being and fought for its recognition, more recently in Eastern and Central Europe (1970s and 1980s). Of course, a growing discontent among the communist blocks in the backdrop of cold war had cataclysmic effects on the concept as a potent social reality. The writings and speeches of Robert David Putnam, a professor at Harvard, and the works of theorists like Gabriel Almond and Sidney Verba have contributed to widen the scope of this phrase.

The rationale behind the civil society groups depends, largely, on the premise of resistance to overgrown coercive organs of state and market. The concept adheres to the struggle of obtaining independent space for civil society outfits to fight a tendency of the institutions of state, family and market.

The question arises whether the concept of 'civil society' has any relevance in non-western contexts. Academicians come out with four possible answers.

The first answer is a clear 'yes', based on the idea of a positive, 'universal' view of the desirability of the civil society as part of the political project of building and strengthening democracy around the world.

The second is a clear 'no'. The proponents of this view argue that a concept which emerged at a distinctive moment in European history has little meaning for other cultural and political settings.

The third opinion that endorses an adaptive view, suggests that while the concept is potentially relevant to non-western contexts it will take on local, different meanings and should, therefore, not be applied too rigidly.

Yet another argument is that the idea of civil society -- whether explicitly recognised as such or not -- has long been implicated in colonial histories of both domination and resistance.

Looking at Pakistan, with regard to 'civil society', one finds military coups and decades of dictatorial regimes that have caused fissures in the fabric of all other institutions of state and society.

The evolution of civil society in post-independence Pakistan was made more difficult by the interplay of innumerable conflicting factors. The divisive trends manifested in the formative years of a new born country owed much to the ethnic and linguistic diversity. The inherited heterogeneity, coupled with the myopic vision of those at the helm, impeded the growth of civil society as a determinant active force of the country. Different regional, ethnic, linguistic and economic interest groups remained at daggers drawn. Policies of the state paid little attention to welding the gaps posing a threat to societal integration. Antagonistic wrangling within the various organisations of Pakistan has been going on since Independence. The inability of the state in dealing with the issues of political and cultural nature has had negative repercussions on the growth of civil society in the country.

Theorists maintain that the institutional forms of civil society are distinct from those of the state, family and market. Nevertheless, in the context of Pakistan, the boundaries between state, civil society, family and market have always remained disproportionately blurred.

Civil societies are often populated by organisations such as registered charities, foundations, trusts, developmental organisations, community groups, women's organisations, faith-based institutions, professional associations, right based organisations, trade unions, self-help groups, social movements, business associations, coalitions and advocacy groups.

Mainstreaming of the term civil society in the context of Pakistan, owes a lot to the mushroom growth of the registered non-governmental organisations -- largely funded by foreign donors, with a little bit alien set of priorities -- in the late 1980s. The indigenous civil society models in this part of the world were largely confined to the Islamic concept of welfare and charity. Civil society organisations such as Anjuman Himayat Islam, Aligarh Movement, and Edhi Foundation focused on the provision of basic services like health care and education. This character of the civil society posed little or no threat to the centralist state structure and dictatorial rulers.

The orientation of community and its collective response to social issues, in traditional Islamic societies, revolve largely around altruism, empathy, and sympathy. Pakistan, till recent past, was no exception to this rule. Before the advent of a 'funded' civil society, a sense of social cohesion, feeling of togetherness, and communal affiliations, were the elements constituting civil society.

Intricacies of politico-economic framework of civil society aside, it has had positive effect on expanding the space for non-state actors in Pakistan, in the past one decade or so. Assumption of roles like advocacy, watchdog, and influencing state policies, has widened the sphere of civil society in the country. For instance, mainstreaming the discourse on human rights, participatory and accountable governance -- though superficially - owes much to the modern civil society pressure groups in Pakistan.

One might pose questions regarding the financial transparency and the legitimacy of many civil society outfits; nevertheless, one cannot deny the fact that these groups have contested the ideological hegemony and challenged the repression of the existing order.

A large array of civil society organisations of lawyers, journalists and other professional bodies do not face any questions of legitimacy. They have impeccable integrity check within their organisations. The commendable ongoing struggle of legal community and other segments of civil society against the unconstitutional suspension of Chief Justice of Pakistan, and the tortuous hardships borne by journalists and political workers during the rule of Ziaul Haq are evidences to support the democratic character of a civil society in Pakistan.

On March 7, during his farewell visit to the historic city of Peshawar, the outgoing US Ambassador to Pakistan, Ryan C. Crocker, stressed "long-term commitment to security and development" in the North West Frontier Province (NWFP) and the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA). He ignored Provincially Administered Tribal Areas (PATA), which are equally important and sensitive. Crocker emphasised that the United States should forge "multi-faceted and enduring relations with Pakistan" and reassured, "we are strongly committed to helping the people of Pakistan in our mutual fight against terrorism".

The situation in NWFP, FATA and PATA is very sensitive as these areas are harbinger of drug trade since ages and after 9/11 the focal point for war against terrorism. Historically, arms and drugs played a pivotal role in US foreign policy to control the groups, regimes and promote relations with military dictators. It is, therefore, not surprising if NWFP and FATA find strategic place in achieving what the US calls victory in the war against terrorism (sic).

Crocker revealed a number of steps that US government took in the wake of declaration of 'war on terrorism' some of which are:

"Our military assistance recently marked the arrival of Cobra helicopters to support Pakistan's efforts in War on Terror.

We have done a great deal with the Pakistan Navy.

The F-16 sale is now moving forward. Two F-16s have already arrived in country.

We have done a tremendous amount on the economic side. Our assistance of three billion dollars over five years, split evenly between economic and security, is, I think, a concrete example of the strength and continuity of this relationship."

It is strange to note that USA is making Pakistani regime of Pervez Musharraf stronger and stronger despite the well-established evidence that religious obscurantism and lawlessness are flourishing during his rule. The episode of Lal Masjid in Islamabad is an eye-opener as everyone knows who has been sponsoring the so-called, self-styled custodians of faith there. The issue has been highlighted out of proportion by the government to convince the West that if support is not lent to the present regime the Mullah will capture the nuclear state having serious repercussions for the world!

One wonders if US policy makers are so naive not to decipher the real motive behind the government policies, which even a common Pakistani can elucidate. The ordinary Pakistani do not approve of the despicable policies of Musharraf and are fully aware of the nexus between law enforcement agencies  and certain religious groups e.g. people controlling Lal Masjid or those waging sectarian and tribal battles in FATA and PATA.

It is a pity, but irrefutable fact, that so-called Muslim Ummah, especially the oil-rich countries, failed to commit or fulfill promised donation for the earthquake relief. On the contrary, the government of USA (the policies of which are strongly criticized by Muslim people) showed great generosity in helping the affectees of the disastrous earthquake. It is lamentable that our so-called religious leaders incite the people of Pakistan in general and tribes living in FATA in particular against USA, but when opportunity to enjoy 'foreign money' for relief or development comes, they claim their entitlement as a matter of right. This is hypocrisy in its worst form. There is an urgent need to develop FATA, PATA and all the underdeveloped areas of NWFP. Factors like poverty, lack of education and dominance of Mullah are the root cause of 'terrorism'. The unemployed and disillusioned are easy victims of recruitment onslaught by certain terrorist groups and Taliban.

These merchants of death use innocent and poverty-stricken people for drug trafficking and fighting in the name of jihad. One wonders how it is justifiable to use drug money for holy war! They are not waging any holy war but want to exploit helpless people for nefarious motives i.e. minting money from drug and arms trade [see detailed discourse in my book Pakistan: Drug-trap to Debt-trap).

The ongoing war on terrorism is not between Islam and the West but between the forces of obscurantism and the oppressors. Policymakers in USA and the West are serving the interests of war industry. The war industry cannot survive without selling its products and hot spots are required by Bush administer USA to get huge funds from Congress. The opponents groups also need armament which they buy from drug money. In this way certain mafia inside USA and elsewhere make huge profits for trading arms for drugs.

The issues of exploitation of governments by the war industry and drug trade need to be tackled by international community on urgent basis. Conflicts like Palestine, Iraq, Kashmir, Chechnya are to resolved along with development of areas like FATA, PATA and NWFP, if we want to win 'war against terrorism'. Crocker now going as Ambassador to crisis-ridden Iraq will certainly consider it. He must convince Bush to leave Iraq as quickly as possible otherwise entire region will be destabilised having disastrous impact for the entire world in general and the Muslim world in particular. In such an eventuality the sensitive areas like FATA, PATA and NWFP will turn out to be more and more attractive for US enemies.
 

Dr. Ikramul Haq (irm@brain.net.pk) is author of many articles and books on money laundering operations, tax frauds, narco-terrorism and socio economic problems


political economy
Winds of change?
Are we indeed looking for a democratic and civilian led-dispensation in the wake of the current judicial crisis?
 

Many in Pakistan now imagine that winds of change have started to blow which will alter the political scene. The expectation is that the military general-president will finally have to concede power to some civilian dispensation and allow the restoration of democracy. The almost mass mobilisation of lawyers seems to have rejuvenated hope in the civil society's resilience to fight military-authoritarian rule.

A couple of years ago while doing interviews for my book, 'Military Inc' I met a former army chief who is considered a great proponent of democracy. During our discussion of civilian institutions the gentlemen pointed towards the judiciary and basically suggested that the country had been let down by the judiciary and that it has shown no gumption or strength of character, which, perhaps, can be found in the military.

A couple of years hence the agitation on the streets seems to have proved the general wrong. But are things about to change? And if this is the case then what kind of change are we looking at? What lies ahead could be a face change and a regime change but not necessarily any metamorphosis in the power politics of the state or greater political empowerment of the people.

A glance at the political map shows that one might not expect too many changes. What is certain that if the crisis continues at this pace and the number of protestors grows, the ruling elite might decide to replace the current regime with a new entity that would have come to power through elections and is more acceptable to the players inside and outside the country. Pakistan's geo-political realities make it important for the world which would not want a prolonged political or economic crisis in a state with nuclear arms. This is not to suggest that external powers will have a direct hand in a political change in Pakistan, but that the elite will be more sensitive of what the state's external partners would prefer. Gone are the days when religious conservatism could sell abroad. The days of the first Afghan war are over. Now, what will guarantee financial inflows into Pakistan is a commitment towards social liberalism.

A new political scene might not necessarily bring about political liberalism because that would entail concessions and mutually agreed upon adjustments by the different power blocks in the country. What is even more important is the fact that the next civilian dispensation will be in the most unenviable position of balancing the absolutely eroded capacity of all civilian institutions versus the ambitions of its own political clients. Such a situation would prove to be a recipe for disaster and may bring the country back to the 1990s. I wouldn't suggest the 1970s due to the fact that none of the political parties is in a position where it could claim a victory which was Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto's fate in the 1970s election.

Referring to eroded capacity of civilian institutions, the seven years of military rule saw the almost total dominance of most civilian institutions by the military fraternity. This term refers to serving and retired military personnel and certain civilian members who benefit from the economic and political power of the armed forces. In the past seven years, the civil bureaucracy saw the incursion of military personnel in all major public sector organisations resulting in bloating the figure to about 4,000-5,000. In fact, civilian capacity eroded parallel to the growth of the military economy. General Musharraf's regime did not stop at the officers but even brought in lower officials into the bureaucracy. For instance, the Pakistan Post was inundated by subedar-majors and other ranks to serve as inspectors on top of senior civil bureaucrats.

Then there are retired military officers serving as ambassadors. Some even found their way into technical positions in the national flag carrier, PIA where their presence only complicated the working of the organisation. The fact is that the retired officers are equally dependent upon the largess of their parent organisation for personal benefits. Thus far, I have only come across only one retired officer who had the courage to admit that he is also a beneficiary of the military economy. Even those that claim to criticise this economy end up justifying it as nothing more than a set of activities geared towards the welfare of personnel. The reasons given for this welfare are ample.

The military economy, however, is not just about welfare. It is about the financial autonomy of the armed forces which feeds into the organisation's political power. This is not the case of a four welfare foundations undertaking about 100 commercial projects for the betterment of their people, but military getting involved in profit-making ventures and enhancing the financial worth, particularly of its officer cadre, at multiple levels.

The military's economy comprises: (a) the organisational level. Here we see three public sector organisations such as National Logistics Cell (NLC) , Frontier Works Organisation (FWO) and Special Communications Organisation (SCO). Besides, there are hundreds of cooperatives-type operations such as cinemas, bakeries, petrol and CNG pumps, commercial plazas and others. The government claimed to have made Rs. 134 million in 2004/05 from these ventures.

However, the actual worth of this segment is much more, (b) the subsidiaries which include the Fauji Foundation, Army Welfare Trust, Bahria Foundation, Shaheen Foundation and Bahria Foundation, and (c) individual members -- this level pertains to the benefits provided to retired and serving members including urban and rural land and numerous other post-retirement benefits. All these three levels constitute a financial worth, which, in turn, has an economic cost for the state and the exchequer.

The more complicated aspect of this economy is its opportunity cost. The military economy which I call Milbus (military business) generates cronyism in both economy and politics. Since the military is a key player in politics and now the economy, other players, particularly domestic and international players, engage in a partnership with the most powerful institution of the state to get preferential access to information which, in turn, is beneficial from an economic point of view. The sum total of this economic relationship is the enhancement of the power of the military which does not necessarily engage in economic ventures to make profits but to enhance their power over the state and society.

In fact, since the military's economic ventures are all in non-tradeable commodities, the military managers never learn the game of earning dividends and merely focus on enhancement of power.

Hence, the military economy is today a prominent feature of Pakistan's pre-capitalist structure. It has also given the military's leadership the power and the confidence which any future civilian regime will find hard to fight, especially if the focus is to get preferential benefits for an individual or a specific party. Under the circumstances, Pakistan might be looking yet again at another re-arrangement of the elite structure with some groups gaining greater prominence than others to again pursue the policies of the past.

 

(The writer is an Islamabad-based independent defence analyst and author of the book, Military Inc, Inside Pakistan's Military Economy) 

Embedded democracy
Mutuality of interests has enabled the feudals to remain entangled in courtship with the establishment and use the influence and official support to ascend to power
 

Participatory democracy remains a cherished goal of a vast majority of people in Pakistan, a country established through the democratic process of vote. Since policies are thrust upon the people, the chances for friction, agitation and turmoil are also minimal under this system.

Whatever may be the form of a democratic system, democratic dispensations generally lead to internal peace and stability, which are prerequisites for progress and prosperity. Consequently, the countries having well-established functional democracies now rank amongst the developed group of states, where the rule of law prevails and official decisions are made in a transparent manner. On the other hand, most of the countries facing democracy-deficit figure amongst the developing or least-developed third world countries and their ranking keeps slipping downwards as the years roll by.

In the South Asian sub continent, the British colonial rulers richly rewarded their lackeys for their services to the Crown. Over the years, this resulted in the emergence of a neo-feudal class, who embedded themselves with the ruling elite to protect their newly acquired estates and to further their vested interests. Their loyalty to the establishment matched well with the bureaucracy's need to create pockets of supporters amongst the residents. This mutuality of interests enabled the feudals to remain entangled in courtship with the establishment and use the influence and official support to ascend to power, within a few years, after the Independence.

Gradually, they increased their power base by inducting a section of the industrialists and establishment in their ranks. In collaboration with the industrialists and bureaucrats, the scions of the neo-feudals win elections to assemblies through manipulation and rigging. Whenever they feel the threat of losing the elections, they call the establishment to come to their rescue and run the affairs of the country in collaboration with their progenies. These people have thus become instrumental in giving birth to a new form of democracy, which can be called 'Embedded Democracy.'

Under this system, important decisions are made in drawing-rooms and using the facade of general elections, majorities are engineered to enable the pro-establishment groups to form the governments of their choice.

The feudal politicians present an enlightened and liberal posture to citizens, in particular while interacting with the opinion leaders and media representatives. However, they deal with their counterparts and tenants in a ruthless manner, just like a tyrant. If one of the tenants or their 'educated and talented' sons challenges any family member of a feudal in an election, the feudal unleashes his wrath upon the 'wretched family' and often eliminates the challenger, following the maxim 'survival of the fittest.'

These feudals cheat banks and DFIs, but talk tirelessly of honesty, fair dealing and fair play. However, when it comes to dealing with the establishment, they patronise one and all, expecting the bureaucracy to recompense for those favours by extending the feudals full protocol and honour whenever an opportunity arises. Those bureaucrats who fail to oblige become the worst enemies of the feudals. In sharp contrast to the politicians of the West, these feudal politicians jump to support any totalitarian regime in the hope of getting a Cabinet slot.

Those among them who returned to the post-1958 assemblies and on that basis were inducted in the Cabinet, were seldom consulted by the real power wielder, who would often avoid feudal-politicians. The helmsmen considered meetings with them to be sheer waste of time since these were sought by the feudals to seek favours or photo opportunities to promote their family interests.

Often, the leader would feel more comfortable to hold discussions on vital issues with a few trusted aides, friends or knowledgeable persons in the cabinet than formally tabling these before the Cabinet of Ministers. No doubt, the cabinet took the final decision, but it was usually without thorough consideration. Thus under the garb of cabinet decisions, the will of the 'boss' or his kitchen cabinet was thrust upon the citizens. That explains the reason for the hasty and faulty decisions, often taken at the spur of moments.

Since their policies were not in keeping with the aspirations of the people, this made the masses angry, providing an excuse to the feudal-politicians to avoid direct interaction with the masses, except before a general election when they never tired of making shallow promises. To avoid public, the 'Embedded Politicians' sought recourse in security. With the rise in their status, the security cordons increased and the highest amongst them did not have any direct contact at all with the public. For monitoring public mood and sentiments, they started relying on reports of one agency or the other. Ironically, the agency reports were usually prepared with certain angles and did not reflect the ground realities. Obviously, decisions made on the basis of those reports often backfired.

Meanwhile, the state expenditure continued to rise due to their lavish expenditure and extravagant lifestyles, resulting in deficit financing and inflation. The increase in the cost of living compounded the miseries of the people, raising their frustration level further. But in the absence of any authentic mechanism to measure the public mood, they remained oblivious of the sentiments and feelings of the people.

When a comparatively younger judge was elevated as Chief Justice, in a period of 20 months, the apex court decided about 30,000 cases, providing relief to the oppressed and the poor and even admonishing one of the provincial governments on the illegal detention of the families of poor Haris. In addition to over 550 cases of human rights violations, the Court verdict in the Steel Mills privatisation case and reprimand for violation of the court's verdict on the flying of kites were seen as potent threats by the embedded politicians, which could diminish their prospects for re-election through manipulation of election 2007. Earlier, they had publicly expressed their resolve to elect the present helmsman as president-in-uniform, ten times over, if necessary. Probably, it was one of their tactical moves to preserve the status quo, which also meant their rule.

The verdicts of the court, they felt, could erode their influence and power. Therefore, they turned against the Chief Justice. But, in their enthusiasm they forgot that they might be crossing the threshold of public tolerance. The peaceful agitation by the Bar over the attempted humiliation of the Chief Justice by the goons of the embedded democrats is a sampling of the pent-up feelings of the intelligentsia. Another pin-prick could burst the balloon of the pent-up frustrations of the masses and bring them to the streets. Generally, the mob agitations are not peaceful. May wiser counsels prevail and make the 'Embedded Politicians' to rise above their vested interests, narrow thinking and self-serving policies.

Meanwhile, the people are fed up with the drawing room politics and want an end to the ultra-constitutional activities. A segment amongst them is advocating the need to constitute, on the pattern of the Supreme Judicial Council, a constitutional body, say a Supreme Counsel of the Armed Forces, from within the ranks to advice the President in matters concerning the ultra-constitutional moves and activities of the top brass, if any. The advocates of the proposal believe that constitution of such a body might prevent derailment of the democracy in future.

(Alauddin Masood is an Islamabad based freelance columnist)

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