Sentiment deteriorated further during
the past week as oil prices rebounded, more bad news in
the financial sector surfaced, economic woes mounted and
inflationary pressures intensified, compounding
already-jittery investors' anxiety.
Status Quo's lyrics "Down down
deeper and down" came to mind as global stock
markets took a battering. The Dow Jones Industrial
Index, for example, plunged by 3.8per cent over the week
to below 12,000 – its lowest level since March.
Commensurate with extreme bearishness, short interest on
the New York Stock Exchange jumped to an all-time high
during the week. At the centre of investors' angst was
the perception that the credit crisis has not yet played
itself out. These fears were supported by Goldman Sachs
analysts who said last week they did not expect the
credit crisis to peak before 2009, and that US banks
might need to raise $65 billion of additional capital
(on top of $159 billion raised so far) to cope with
additional losses from the sub-prime fallout.
On a related note, Moody's downgraded
the credit ratings of Ambac Financial (ABK) and MBIA (MBI),
citing their limited ability to raise new capital and
write new business. Banks were also in focus as analysts
cut their price targets for, among others, Goldman Sachs
(GS), Citigroup (C) and Wachovia (WB).
In one of the most bearish reports
for a while, The Royal Bank of Scotland advised clients
to brace themselves for a full-fledged crash in global
stock and credit markets over the next three months as
inflation paralyses the major central banks. "A
very nasty period is soon to be upon us – be
prepared," said Bob Janjuah, the bank's credit
strategist (who gained credibility after his warnings
last year about an impending credit crisis).
Richard Russell, 83-year old author
of the Dow Theory Letters, expressed concern about the
stock market's negative breadth and said: "I did a
double-take when I read Lowry's statistics … Buying
Power Index at a multi-year low and Selling Pressure
Index at a multi-year high. And the two Indices at about
their widest (most bearish) spread in history or since
the 1930s. What the devil could this mean? My guess can
be summed up in one word – trouble."
But there is hope still, according to
David Fuller (Fuller-money) who pointed out that
Investors Intelligence's sentiment index (bottom section
of the chart on the left) was extremely bearish.
"There has never been a reading at current or lower
levels that was not soon followed by a sharp rebound,
including during the last bear market. This indicates to
me that we are within a week or two of a bear squeeze,
providing at least a tradable rally …"
Back to Richard Russell for the last
word: "Lousy Fridays are often followed by rotten
Mondays." To which I add: When in doubt (and there
is a ton of doubt), better to err on the side of caution
than to do something stupid.
I am flying to Slovenia and
Switzerland, in my opinion the jewels of "old"
and "new" Europe respectively, next weekend
for a combination of work and leisure. Blog posts will
unfortunately be rather slow during my 10-day absence,
and specifically "Words from the Wise" will
take a break next Sunday as I will be in midair when the
review needs to be compiled.
Before highlighting some
thought-provoking news items and quotes from market
commentators, let's briefly review the financial
markets' movements on the basis of economic statistics
and a performance round-up.
Economy
"Global business sentiment
appears to have turned a corner. It remains weak, but it
has moved measurably higher since hitting bottom in late
April," reported the Survey of Business Confidence
of the World conducted by Moody's Economy.com .
"Confidence remains weakest in the US where it
suggests the economy is still contracting, and it is
strongest in Asia where it is consistent with an economy
growing near its potential."
Economic reports in the US were
largely overlooked last week as market participants
focused on corporate news, although there were several
notable releases.
• The NAHB Housing Market Index
fell by 1 point to 18, bringing it back to the record
low reached in December and before that not seen since
1985.
• After plummeting since the
beginning of this year, consumer confidence is showing
tentative signs of stabilising, according to the ABC
News/Washington Post Consumer Comfort Index.
• Industrial Production fell by
0.2per cent in May, following an outsized 0.7per cent
decline in April. Overall, the report is consistent with
continued modest declines in manufacturing.
• The Producer Price Index for
finished goods rose by a large 1.4per cent in June as
expected, following a 0.2per cent increase in April.
Inflation was once again led by large price increases of
food and energy products.
The highlight of next week's economic
news will be the FOMC policy announcement on Wednesday.
Economists expect the Fed funds rate to remain unchanged
at 2.0per cent, but uncertainty regarding the wording of
the policy statement means it has market-moving
potential.