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Fundamentals based market review

By Asfa Naz

Last week was about the first that would be labeled as post-results week, but it is absolutely amazing to see the market holding its nerves like that, on the face of rising political turbulence in the country and next results season some months away.

The KSE100 fell marginally by 0.69 per cent last week, and is still 12.5 per cent up from the start of 2007. There are three tables provided here. Table 1 provides the KSE100 top symbols’ price performance last week, together with the year-to-date per cent gains. Except for POL and FFC, all top symbols have contributed handsomely this year so far. Needless to mention, FFC has once again reached a price level at which most fund managers should be topping up their portfolios to maximum permissible for one company. In fact, OGDC too.

Table 2 is about the top gainers from the KSE100 last week together with their year to date gains. All these 10 companies have continued to add gains to their year-to-date gains, except Kohat Cement and Bannu Woolen. Most surprising is Adamjee’s inclusion in this list because this insurance company’s results did not quite impress the market participants.

In today’s column, we will add a few words on the year-to-date performance of closed-end funds. Till the close of trading on Friday, March 16, the KSE100 had risen by 13.28 per cent that none of the close end funds was able to beat. The best performance was from Golden Arrow that gained 13.21 - a whisker close to beating the bellwether index in Pakistan. It was followed by AKD Index Tracker that went up be 12.92 per cent, and interestingly both top funds are managed by AKD’s fund management company. Apart from these two, UTP Growth Fund managed by Arif Habib Investments gained 12.2 per cent and another fund from the same fund managers UTP Large Cap gained 11.09 per cent. The worst performer was Atlas Fund of funds that gained a paltry 2.35 per cent and NAMCO Balanced Fund that gained a measly looking 2.76 per cent but it is a balanced fund. From amongst all balanced funds the best performer was BSJS Balanced Fund, followed by Meezan Balanced Fund that gained 6.14 per cent.

We do not have the Net Asset Values as at close of trading last week but from the last available figures (when these lines were typed), some close end mutual funds lost substantially last week and these include UTP Large Cap and UTP Growth, PICIC Investment and PICIC Growth funds. BSJS Balanced Fund also seems to have seen substantial NAV erosion last week.

The readers should bear in mind that we have provided a comparison between KSE100 and Net Asset Values of close end mutual funds. NAV’s and market values of their certificates are two different things, and all close end mutual funds’ trade at a discount to their NAV’s; in fact in some cases the discounts are very large.

TABLE-1: KSE100 INDEX TOP HEAVY WEIGHTS

Rank Company Per cent rise Per cent rise

last week in FY07

1 Oil and Gas Dev. -0.72 1.83

2 National Bank XDXB 0.52 21.95

3 P.T.C.L.A. -6.19 4.40

4 PPL XD -3.17 5.39

5 MCB Bank XDXB -8.59 31.78

6 UBL XDXB 1.85 36.93

7 Nestle Pakistan 9.59 53.12

8 Pak Oilfields -2.05 -9.24

9 P.S.O. -4.87 19.93

10 Fauji Fertilizer -6.08 -1.23

KSE100 -0.69 12.50

TABLE-2: KSE100 BASKET TOP VALUE GAINERS

Rank Company Per cent rise Per cent rise

last week in FY07

1 Nestle Pakistan 9.59 53.12

2 Bata (Pak) 8.48 77.18

3 Kohat Cement 7.94 -1.57

4 Thal Limited XD 5.88 24.53

5 Adamjee Ins. 5.79 28.64

6 Pioneer Cement 3.83 27.58

7 Bannu Woollen 2.82 -8.67

8 B.O.Punjab SPOT 2.77 22.30

9 P.N.S.C. 1.85 32.21

10 UBL XDXB 1.85 36.93

KSE100 (0.69) 12.50


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