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analysis budget Quick
solutions money Give
it a try Like
it or not revival SharifsÕ
about turn No
place to walk
analysis By
Aasim Sajjad Akhtar I
have to admit that I had planned to write this week on the massive
destruction that was visited upon Japan by nature last week, and the
subsequent nuclear fallout. It is true that no country in the world could
have been equipped to cope with such a monstrous natural disaster, but it
is also true that the global scientific community, politicians, armies and
even lay-people know that developing and sustaining nuclear programmes is
potentially catastrophic. That the world should have to witness an
unfolding Japanese tragedy to be reminded of the perils of nuclear energy
is a sad testament to the fallibility of human rationality. I
was then so infuriated by the passing of a resolution by the United
Nations Security Council (UNSC) okaying bombing raids on As
it turns out, I will write about neither Japan nor Libya, for the sudden
developments in the Raymond Davis affair since Wednesday evening have been
compelling enough Ñ even if they are utterly predictable Ñ to divert my
gaze away from the rest of the world back to the land of the pure. By
chance or design, the controversy generated by Mr. DavisÕs swift
departure from the country was compounded on Thursday by a most
destructive drone attack in North Waziristan in which a reported 40
civilians were killed. As
I write this, religious parties are gearing up for their standard protest
after Friday prayers Ñ they are hoping for large numbers, but the
protests that took place on Wednesday evening and Thursday were
conspicuous for how small they were. Even so, the government has taken
numerous precautions, while the Americans have shut up shop completely,
and will only reemerge once they are sure that any commotion has
completely died down. But
the commotion will not die down. The invocation of ShariaÕt in the court
decision to free Davis notwithstanding, the right-wing lobby has been
baying from blood since the day Davis decided to make himself famous.
Polarisation across the length and breadth of this country between the ÔsecularistsÕ
and the ÔtheocratsÕ has been on the up for years, and in recent months
has become acute. The Americans are not about to abandon their strategic
interests in the region anytime soon, just as the Pakistani establishment
refuses to abandon its strategic assets. And so some other sensational
story will emerge in days to come when the furore over Davis dies down.
And ordinary Pakistanis will continue to be held hostage to the whims of
those who play Great Games, save the world for freedom and democracy, and
project the cause of national security. If
there is a silver lining to all of this it is the fact that the
machinations of the spymasters are coming under intense scrutiny in a
manner that is surely unnerving to both those under the spotlight and
their yes-men in the media, religious parties and the For
the very first time Ñ and this is what happens when the state and
dominant classes are riven by potentially irreconcilable internal
contradictions Ñ commentators and politicians alike have been forced to
admit that the Ôgreater national interestÕ has n Having
said this, the right-wing has been careful to make sure that it reserves
the strongest condemnation for the elected government, reminding the
general public that it is the ÔspinelessÕ Pakistan PeopleÕs Party (PPP)
at the centre, and the slightly less spineless Pakistan Muslim League Ñ
Nawaz (PML-N) in Punjab, that are basically responsible for signing away
PakistanÕs
sovereignty and the usual garb. But
that is to be expected. As I argued following Shahbaz BhattiÕs death, the
right-wing will continue to pitch the tired and simplistic narrative of
national security and Islam. It is now up to the rest of us to take the
game to the right, for a change, and expose the innumerable holes in their
argument. This cannot be done, as our liberals insist on doing, by
defending the Raymond DavisÕs of the world (or at the very least not
condemning them), but by asserting the simple fact that the CIA-ISI nexus
has gotten us into a quagmire that can only be redressed if and when we
clearly enunciate what has happened and who has done it. The debate over
whether the mullahs have become an autonomous force that is willing and
able to challenge the establishment can go on forever. What matters in the
here and now is that the establishment and its imperial patron continue to
be the bane in the existence of working people. The cause of PakistanÕs
long-suffering people will be greatly helped if this basic fact is openly
asserted, again and again and again. In
closing, even though I am not one for conspiracy theories, is it not
intriguing that the drone attack that followed DavisÕs release was
condemned so forcefully by not only the government, but the Chief of Army
Staff (COAS) himself? There has been much debate about whether the drones
kill ÔterroristsÕ or civilians, and this latest attack will not alter
the terms of this debate. The outspoken reaction to the attack is what
truly stands out given what has happened in recent days. It surely does
not take a rocket scientist to figure out that this is a classic case of
the proverbial defenders of the nation reclaiming their mantle as the
guardians of our sovereignty. Now is surely the time to put this myth to
bed, once and for all. budget More taxes, so what? Are we heading towards economic stability after the imposition of new taxes? By
Abid Qaiyum Suleri Taxes
imposed through presidential ordinance to add another 53 billion rupees in
the national exchequer was a predictable move: not only because it was
part of the commitments that the government of Pakistan made with the IMF,
but also due to the fact that the government wanted to send a signal to
the international community that it can mobilise domestic resources to
face emerging economic challenges. One
needs to recall the budget speeches made by Shaukat Tareen and Hafeez
Sheikh in 2009 and 2010 respectively. Both of them mentioned that Public
Sector Development Programme (PSDP) would be funded through external
assistance. Shaukat Tareen was banking on Tokyo Pledges (made during
Friends of Pakistan (FoP) forum in Tokyo) to meet fiscal deficit, whereas
Hafeez Sheikh had been relying on Kerry LugarÕs (KL) money. Unfortunately,
neither the Tokyo Pledges nor Kerry Lugar aid materialised. Out of the US$
1.5 billion, KL money allocated for the fiscal year 2010-11, we only
received US$210-250m during the first eight months. On top of it, Pakistan
faced one of the worst floods in its modern history, which did not only
affect economic activities and overall economic growth, but also had a
direct cost on flood relief, rehabilitation, and reconstruction. Pakistan
was hoping to receive external assistance to cope with floods, just as it
received during the earthquake of 2005. However, it got very strong
messages from almost all donor countries for mobilising its domestic
resource to increase its revenue. The
budgeted revenue was already short of meeting expenditures. Floods had
their direct and indirect impact. Suspension of the last two tranches of
IMF programme (due to non-implementation of RGST, lack of reforms in power
sector, and lack of reforms in public sector enterprises) further
aggravated the fiscal deficit. The suspension also had an impact on other
lender and donors. A country where an IMF programme is active has to
produce a letter of comfort from IMF if it wants to borrow from other
lenders such as the World Bank and Asian Development Bank. Pakistan was
not able to produce this letter of comfort for last many months. Economic
situation became worse when the government could not pass on the impact of
rise in international fuel prices to domestic consumers due to political
compulsions. Likewise, reform in the public sector enterprises were also
shelved due to political compulsions. One
completely agrees with some political parties that these measures are
painful, especially for poor and lower-middle class. One also agrees that
bringing in new taxes through presidential ordinance can never be
appreciated in a democratic regime. It is also true that 50 percent of
Pakistanis are food-insecure and would not be able to absorb shock from
increased power tariffs and increased fuel prices. There is no doubt that
the imposition of sales tax on agricultural input would escalate
production cost that would not only affect the production capacity of
small farmers but would also affect the consumption power of urban
consumers. However,
it is also a fact that Pakistan is no more in a position where it can
continue providing non-targeted subsides. Having said that, one should not
imply that nothing needs to be done for poor and lower-middle class that
will face the maximum brunt of macro-economic measures. I
have been writing on these pages that the solution to economic issues lies
in political wisdom and not in their politicisation. One can blame the PPP
government for various mistakes that it made during last three years. They
could not formulate and implement a viable economic agenda. They could not
get rid of the accusations of corruption. They did not implement austerity
measures, and so on. However, one must be mindful that if interim
elections are held today, none of the opposition parties would be willing
to form government in the centre as none of them has an easy solution to
tackle economic crisis. Without
using the ground realities as excuse to give grace marks to PPP
government, one must realise that we would hardly be able to generate 1.6
trillion rupees as revenue. Out of which 860 billion would be spent on
debt-servicing. Another 600 billion would be spent on defence and security
budget. Thus, the government has around 150 billion rupees in hand to take
care of its lavish expenses, day-to-day administration, federal public
sector development programme, flood reconstruction, payments to provinces
through NFC Award, and petroleum subsidies. We
are back to square one. In order to reduce the gap between income and
expenditures the government needs to increase its revenues and reduce its
expenditures. While doing this, it also needs to operationalise a well
thought-out social protection system to protect the poor and lower-middle
class from inflation. Preparations
for the next budget are already on. We would again be relying on loans and
external assistance to fill in the wide gaps between budgeted revenue and
budgeted expenses. External assistance and loans would not come unless we
document our economy, we plug in resource leakage by implementing
power-sector reforms, and we reshape loss-making public sector
enterprises. Reliance
on external resources can be minimised by boosting our economy through
uninterrupted energy supply to small and medium industries that would lead
to job creation and economic growth. On top of it, broadening our tax net
by bringing non-tax payers in the loop not only through punitive measures
but through incentives would also help in reducing loan dependency. Based
on a thorough homework, an upper threshold should be determined for
tax-free income from agriculture, real estate, services, and wealth gain
from stock markets. Beyond that threshold, all type of income should be
taxed. To
reduce our expenditures, public sector development programmes should be
the last one to face budget cuts. We have to freeze all non-developmental
expenditures. The austerity at government level should not mean freezing
of budget of various ministries and line departments, thus turning them
non-functional. The austerity should come from top and should curtail all
discretionary expenses as well as entitlements. Finally,
political parties should propose a convincing and viable social protection
system for fifty percent of Pakistanis who are food-insecure. One can
learn from Malaysia, Indonesia, and Chile about their fuel subsidy
programme. Likewise, the Indian experience of Òminimum employment
guarantee schemeÓ can also be improved and replicated in Pakistan. To
me, both the people as well as the government feel the heat Ñ the
government because it has to take non-popular decisions, the people due to
the impact of those decisions. But the worst crisis that the country is
facing today is that of the crisis of trust that does not exist between
the government and the international community and between the government
and people of Pakistan. Same is the situation between the people of
Pakistan and the international community. Trust cannot be built through
presidential ordinances and requires a thorough political discussion to
reach a broader consensus. The challenge is can we use political wisdom
without politicising these issues any further? The
writer is executive director of sustainable development policy institute
and can be reached at Suleri@sdpi.org Quick solutions It
remains to be seen if the targets set in the mini budget prove to be too
ambitious By
Mehtab Haider The
government has finally taken the crucial decision on the political and
economic status quo by unfolding the mini-budget and The
government took additional measures such as cutting down expenditures by
Rs120 billion and imposing new taxes of Rs53 billion through controversial
Presidential Ordinances to curtail fiscal deficit below 5.5 percent. With
corrective measures on economic front coupled with release of Raymond
Davis, the economic team of the PPP government is expecting that
multilateral creditors, including the World Bank and Asian Development
Bank will extend budgetary support of over $1 billion before the end of
the ongoing fiscal year and that the US would release a maximum amount out
of the total commitment of $1.5 billion under the Kerry Lugar Law. Economists
say the government should have taken these steps much earlier with the aim
to improve budgetary conditions. Also, the additional measures of Rs173
billion are quite ambitious as the governmentÕs target to generate Rs90
billion during the last three and a half months, including generating Rs37
billion through improving administration and efficiency of FBR and Rs53
billion by imposing 15 percent flood surcharge, etc, might not yield the
desired results. Former
Economic Advisor, Dr Ashfaque Hassan, who is currently serving as Dean
NUST Business School (NBS), tells TNS that one should appreciate that the
government has taken corrective measures though after a delay as these
should have been taken soon after floods struck the country and caused a
loss of over $10 billion. ÒThe economic team lost the opportunity for
taking additional revenue measures in October or November 2010 that could
have beneficial economy of this country,Ó he says. Ashfaque also raises
doubts about the FBRÕs ability to achieve Rs1600 billion revenue target
for June 2011, saying when the tax authorities failed to achieve the
desired results during the last eight months, how would it be possible for
them to get all targets in the remaining months? Deputy
Chairman Planning Commission, Dr Nadeem Ul Haq, is optimistic that the
government took corrective measures after doing a lot of homework and the
budget deficit would be curtailed at 5.3 percent of GDP for the ongoing
financial year. He says the envisaged budgetary targets are quite
achievable and financial discipline would achieve the desired results. The
government aims at increasing revenues by improving administration of the
FBR to the tune of Rs37 billion and by imposing new taxes to fetch Rs53
billion in the last three and a half months of 2010-11. Pakistan
and the IMF have assessed that the FBR can collect Rs1510 billion and it
requires additional measures for netting Rs90 billion for displaying the
desired target of Rs1600 billion by June 30, 2011. To achieve the target
of Rs37 billion through improving administration of the FBR, tax
authorities have identified 0.7 million potential taxpayers who are not
included into the tax net. The FBR has estimated that it can collect Rs3
billion by identifying 0.7 million new taxpayers but it is a lengthy
process that will take time. The
additional revenue measures have been taken in three major taxes,
including one-time 15 percent surcharge on income tax that would yield
Rs20 billion, abolishing crucial sales tax exemptions for generating
Rs25billion and hiking excise duty up to 2.5 percent to raise Rs8 billion
in the remaining period of fiscal year 2010-11. ÒWe will generate Rs53
billion in three major taxes in the remaining period of the current fiscal
for achieving the revised target of Rs1,600 billion,Ó Member FBRÕs
Inland Revenue Service (IRS), Khawar Khurshid Butt, says while talking to
TNS. He is of the view that the envisaged target is not ambitious and the
FBR possesses the capacity to achieve the desired results. The
Presidential Ordinances, to this effect, has been issued for imposing 17
percent GST on tractors and jacking up the rate of sugar up to Rs55 per kg
from earlier rate of Rs28.88 per kg for imposing 8.5 percent GST. In order
to slash down expenditures by Rs120 billion, the government axed
development programme by cutting it down to Rs100 billion, revising
downward the Public Sector Development Programme (PSDP) from Rs280 billion
to Rs180 billion for the current fiscal year. It
has also been decided that the allocation meant for petrol and other
entitlements for bureaucrats and parliamentarians will be slashed down. Ban
on recruitments and purchase of new cars, furniture, air-conditioners and
computers will save another Rs20 billion in the current fiscal year. The
government has also banned unnecessary foreign tours, freezing
supplementary grants and reducing all kind of other non-essential
expenditures to get the desired results. Federal
Secretary Finance, Dr Waqar Masood, said in a press conference recently
that there is no sacred area in terms of cutting down the expenditure side
as the full support extended by President, Prime Minister and Pakistan
army paved the way for achieving the desired results. The budget deficit,
according to him, was projected in the range of over 8 percent of GDP
equivalent to Rs1,376 billion for the current fiscal year at one stage
which was curtailed by bringing it down to below 5.5 percent of GDP by
taking measures both on expenditure and revenue mobilisation sides. The
government has increased prices of POL products by 5 percent and
electricity tariff by imposing 2 percent additional surcharge with the aim
to cutting down on energy subsidies in the current fiscal year.
Officially, the government has passed on only 5 percent burden to domestic
consumers in terms of POL products against an increase of 26 percent in
prices of international market. The government has absorbed around Rs20
billion by not passing on full burden of POL products in last few months. Despite
raising tariff by 100 percent during the last three years, there is still
a gap of 16 percent between the cost of power generation and receivable of
cash bleeding the power sector. There is a need to analyse the whole
sector in detail and introduce desired reforms to improve the crucial
sector. money Getting to the point Expanding
the tax base and capping the leakages is the only option to raise the
much-needed revenue By
Tahir Ali No
state can operate without a proper and fair tax collection mechanism. But
a balanced tax structure has affordable rates, Pakistan
must increase its dismal tax-to-GDP ratio (9 percent) to meet the
financial requirements for sustainable development and rehabilitation of
the ailing economy. The Federal Board of Revenue (FBR) aims to increase
the ratio to 15 percent by 2015 which is a must as high tax to GDP ratio
means sustained socio-economic development as more money is there for
developing different sectors of economy and for uplifting the living
standard of the people. World
powers have been repeatedly urging Pakistan to raise its tax to GDP ratio
and that the rich should contribute to the efforts first before asking the
international community for money. US
foreign secretary Hillary Clinton has been quoted as saying the most
important step Pakistan can take is to pass meaningful reforms to expand
its tax base and that the rich and elite support the government and people
of Pakistan in their hour of need. The
ratio, unfortunately, has been on the decline due to weak and corrupt tax
collection machinery, smuggling, and frail commitment to raise new taxes
and bring untapped areas under the tax net. According to an estimate, the
government is losing around Rs500 billion annually in tax theft.
Governments have always expressed their concerns on the issue but the
remedy often resorted to has been defective. According
to a rough estimate, only 2.5 million of the total population of 170
million pays direct taxes which include 1.8 million salaried taxpayers.
Most tax payers come in the lowest tax bracket paying meager taxes than
they should. A
report jointly released by FBR, Georgia State University, and the World
Bank last year said that
every man, woman and child in Pakistan is evading taxes worth Rs4,800 per
annum and the existing tax gap stood at 67 percent of the actual tax
receipts. The
report said narrow tax base, tax evasion, distrust of taxpayers and
administrative weaknesses have taken a toll on tax collection and some
sectors are more heavily taxed than others. ÒAgriculture contributes
about one-fifth of GDP, and amounts to no more than one percent of
revenue. Given the shortfall in agriculture and services, industry carries
the brunt of the tax burden, and its tax share is three-times as high as
its GDP share,Ó it added. Pakistani
leadership has not created good precedents for the people. Hesitant as
Pakistani leadership is to cut down on their bourgeoning current
expenditure, the shortage of funds in wake of fewer taxes leaves little
room with the government other than either to slash development budget or
seek expensive foreign debts as has been witnessed in post-flood situation
in the country. Rather
than expanding the tax-base by bringing more people into the tax net, the
existing tax-payers, mainly the salaried class, have been subjected to
increased tax ratio by successive regimes. This has been done this week as
well by increasing the ratio of sales tax. This
strategy has been adopted by all the public service departments as well
that have increased their tariffs but done little to curtail the theft
that has resulted into a loss of an estimated Rs75 billion for Wapda
alone. This has resulted in an increased resort to theft in taxes and
services by the people and entrepreneurs. Tax
exemptions are making things even worse. The economic survey 2009-10
states that the influential sectors and individuals have managed to secure
tax exemptions worth Rs147 billion in major taxes. The
national economy has also received both internal and external shocks
during the past more than thirty years. Prolonged load-shedding and law
and order situation has dealt severe blows tot the industrial sector in
the country. Direct
taxes were Rs520bn as against the initial target of Rs544bn last year.
This year it is Rs633bn which also seems impossible given the straight
record of the tax collection machinery. This explains why a tax collection
target has been lowered recently. A
broadened but rational and balanced tax structure with minimal exemptions
is needed but it requires a strong political will to do so on the part of
the government. Shaukat
Tarin, former finance minister, had promised to bring agriculture, stock
exchanges and real estate business in the tax net for increased revenues,
but he was resisted and, instead, shown the door by powerful lobbies. Last
year, former finance minister Hina Rabbani Khar, had said Pakistan had
devised a three-year plan for shifting from indirect to direct taxes,
expanding the tax base and taxing the untaxed sectors but the idea seems
to have been abandoned to the detriment of the people and development. For
industrial growth and to tap the full potential of the industries, the
government should overcome energy shortage and build as many big and small
hydro-power generation units as possible. More economic activities and
development would yield more taxes. Smuggling
to and from Afghanistan and Iran would have to be stopped or controlled
and trans-border trade would have to be regulated for raising the tax to
GDP ratio. The informal economy is thought to be two times bigger than
formal economy of Rs16000 billion. Corruption will have to be brought
down. PakistanÕs
tax rules and regulations are complicated, especially for indirect taxes,
and some taxpayers have little knowledge on their obligation. This problem
needs to be given due attention. It
is strange that the introduction of universal self-assessment scheme, a
scheme to allow taxpayers to determine their tax themselves without being
questioned by the tax officials and in the absence of income tax audits,
has also failed to augment revenue from taxes. What is probably lacking is
a commitment on part of the wealthy to support the state. A robust but
fair accountability mechanism is the other option to force compliance. Provincial
taxes contribute no more than 0.4 percent of the national GDP, and as a
result provincial governments largely depend on fiscal transfers from the
central government to meet their expenditures. The inability of provinces
to increase their provincial receipts will have to be tackled. Give it a try Proper
solid waste management can be a reality if there is a collective will By
Erum Ashfaq Proper
disposal of solid waste in urban areas is a big issue. With the increase
in population, cities encounter a host of problems, Less
developed countries are generally short of finances, since their
priorities are related to the provision of basic necessities and utilities
to people. Therefore, the SWM remains lower on priority list. As a result,
the entire cites remain crowded with uncollected waste, thus deteriorating
living conditions. Punjab
Municipal Services Improvement Project (PMSIP) through Punjab Municipal
Development Fund Company (PMDFC) in collaboration with World Bank have
initiated a project of solid waste management in Chiniot. The key
components of this project are: 1. Equipment, 2. Training, and, 3.
sanitary landfill site. For
the purpose, the TMA officials were sent to Korea (worldÕs largest
landfill site is in Korea) to learn best practices in the field of solid
waste management in the world. A sanitary land ill site is a place where
solid waste, generated by the people, is buried between layers of soil and
other materials to reduce contamination of the surrounding land. The
landfill sides and bottom are clay lined to keep pollutants from leaking
into the soil and water. An approach road is constructed for efficient
maneuvering of waste trucks from collection points to the landfill site.
The site, a 15 acre land, is a dumping ground of solid waste of Chiniot
city for the last ten years. To
dispose of solid waste, preliminary requirement is its adequate
collection. Solid waste management cannot be successful if people do not
have knowledge about the disposal mechanism. Therefore, it is important to
involve stakeholders, who are to play a vital role in the implementation
of the project. Otherwise, heavy investment will go waste unless there is
cooperation from the public. The
responsibility may not rest solely with the TMA staff. Therefore, a
well-coordinated plan involving all stakeholders will lead to an efficient
collection system. One
can make educational institutions and mosques the starting point of
campaign. The reason being, youngsters have a great adaptability and
acceptance for whatever they learn. Specifically, their teachers greatly
influence their views and persuade personality development. Children
always follow and abide by what they learn in their school for the rest of
their lives. No
solid waste programme can run efficiently if the general public is not
aware. The awareness campaign is a step forward in bringing about
attitudinal change. It always begins at educating the younger lot,
inculcating practices at the very beginning of personality development,
and years of follow up. Therefore, solid waste management should be made
an integral part of primary syllabus. The
core message should be focused on convincing the house wives through their
children for adequately disposing off the solid waste. This little effort
would add enormously to the waste collection system. In
our campaign for proper disposal of waste in Chiniot, a total of 2523
students, 258 teachers that were randomly selected were conveyed the
message. The average household size in Chiniot is 7 persons, assuming each
person representing single household, we get 17,661 persons that actually
received the message. Consequently,
16 mosques were selected from 8 Union Councils, where somewhat 1120
persons were addressed. In the same manner, each UC office was assigned to
disseminate the information in their respective jurisdiction at the
preliminary stage. The
experience in Chiniot led to varying findings. Most of the people were not
aware of the massive sanitary landfill project in their town. Moreover,
the success of SWM project in Chiniot greatly depends on TMA handling of
operation and maintenance. For TMA needs, adequate staff, i.e., drivers,
operators, sanitary workers be inducted on a priority basis, otherwise
heavy investments made on project will go waste. Like it or not Climate
change is going to affect the population living in this area, notably in
the shape of water scarcity By
Reema Murad United
Nations Climate Change Conference which took place in , Mexico from 29
November to 10 December 2010 offered low The
draft documents that were drawn up during the Cancun summit admit that
deeper carbon cuts are needed but they do not launch a mechanism for
achieving the pledges countries have made. That
is not to say that there were no concrete steps taken. A fund was formed
with the aim of assisting developing countries to deal with climate
change. The Green Climate Fund is intended to raise and disburse $100bn (£64bn)
a year by 2020 to protect poor nations against climate impacts and assists
them with low-carbon development. Also, a new Adaptation Committee will
support countries as they set up climate protection plans. In addition to
these agreements reached at the Cancun Summit, parameters for funding
developing countries to reduce deforestation have been outlined. In
spite of these agreements, there is a serious question regarding climate
change that whether carbon emission cuts on countries will be legally
binding. The
Pakistan delegation held a side event at the UN climate talks in Cancun to
bring attention to the extreme floods in PakistanÕs history, which was
organised by LEAD-Pakistan and was attended by a number of journalists and
NGO officials. Experts
have warned that climate change could alter the timing and rate of snow
melting, with an initial increase in annual runoff followed eventually by
a steep decrease that will severely curb river flows. Another
negative effect of this climate change for Pakistan could be of provoking
conflict between Pakistan and India, particularly as India develops dams
along the upper riches of the Indus, raising questions in Pakistan over
whether falling water availability is due to climate change or to IndiaÕs
reservoirs. The
painfully negotiated Indus Water Treaty of 1960 owes its roots to the 1947
separation of India and Pakistan into separate countries. It provides
India rights to the natural flow of water of the IndusÕ three eastern
tributaries Ñ the Ravi, Sutlej and Beas Ñ while Pakistan controls the
main Indus channel itself and two Western rivers, the Jhelum and Chenab. However,
determining what amount of water represents a riverÕs natural flow is
growing more difficult as climate change affects glacial runoff and the
monsoon. Pakistan has increasingly raised concerns about data sharing and
transparency, especially because the upper reaches of all of the rivers
lie in Indian-controlled territory, giving that nation greater ability for
control of the entire Indus river system. PakistanÕs
anxieties have a great deal to do with its lack of alternative water
resources. Seventy-seven percent of its population survives on water from
the Indus basin. The
changes threaten to have a major impact on agriculture in both nations as
well. According to the U.N Environmental Programme, changes in temperature
and precipitation patterns will alter crop yields and growing seasons with
a predicted increase in more extreme storms, rainfall and drought. Experts
also believe new pests and diseases will emerge, and could seriously leave
a negative impact food security in both nations. Another
worrying point to note is that PakistanÕs meteorological department has
recorded a 10 to15 percent decrease in winter and summer rainfall in the
countryÕs coastal belt and arid plains, with a temperature rise of 0.6 to
1.0 degree Celsius over historical levels. Per
capita water availability in Pakistan has dropped in the last 50 years
from 5,600 cubic meters to 1,038 cubic meters today. By 2025 it is
predicted to be 809 cubic meters, according to the Pakistan governmentÕs
Water and Power Development Authority. Humid
areas of Pakistan, on the other hand, have seen an 18 to 32 percent
increase in monsoon rainfall. In India and Pakistan, 70 percent of rain
falls during monsoon periods, which cover four months of the year. In
PakistanÕs western Himalayan foothills, where farmers rely on glacial
melting from the Karakoram Range and year-round rainfall, both water
sources are now reducing. Fruit farmers in the area have already responded
by harvesting summer stream water into 3,000 litres gravity-fed storage
tanks. In
other areas, flooding is the problem. Pakistan records floods almost every
year now, and in India the area affected by flooding more than doubled
between 1953 and 2003, and currently represent about 11 percent of its
geographic area, according to the World Bank. The
problems facing both sides of the India-Pakistan border are serious
because water management systems are inefficient. Poor water management is
to a great extent responsible for PakistanÕs water worries, According to
a 2006 World Bank report, ground water is being overused with a resultant
20 million tones of salt accumulating in the water system. India
and Pakistan need to form and implement mutually beneficial strategies to
overcome the issue of water management as well as to cope with climate
change. revival Left on its own There
are signs that the ship-breaking industry is ready to show positive
results By
Alauddin Masood Measures
for the revival of ship-breaking industry have yielded good results and
the prospects for the development of Gaddani Ship-breaking industry now
look bright. A
major indicator for the revival of the ship-breaking industry is the
number of ships Ñ 64 Ñ brought to Gaddani ship-breaking In
addition to providing jobs to thousands of workers directly, the 64 small
and medium-sized old ships, which are presently docked at the Gaddani
ship-breaking yard, are expected to produce around 400,000-500,00 tons of
scrap while the government has received about one billion rupees in
customs duty and income-tax. As
compared to last year, the scrapping activity is slow this year because of
high prices of ships in the international market, still some 20-22
ship-breakers are working at Gaddani, employing about 8,000 workers on an
average salary of Rs10,000 per month. Once
occupying the second top position on the globe after Taiwan, PakistanÕs
Ship-breaking industry was virtually pushed to the verge of collapse by
vested interests in the mid 1980s; while merely a decade earlier (in the
1970s) it used to handle about 150 ships at a time, providing direct jobs
to some 100,000 persons and meeting major demand for steel and steel
related material in the country. In
2007, ship-breaking industry made available 152,260 LSD steel and metal
scrap through dismantling of 34 ships of various sizes. In the last 10
years, it had produced 926,067 LDT scrap by breaking 64 vessels of
different sizes, and contributed Rs3.53 billion to the national exchequer
in taxes and duties. In its hay days, the industry contributed Rs5.3
billion to the national exchequer in taxes in one financial year. In
addition to high quality steel, the dismantled ships also provide cheapest
possible material, like copper, brass, aluminum, machinery, generators,
boilers, wood and tools of international standard, for meeting the
ever-growing demand of the countryÕs fast developing industrial and
commercial sectors. India,
Sri Lanka and Dubai benefited the most from the decline in PakistanÕs
ship-breaking industry and consequently emerged as regional hubs of
ship-breaking because most of foreign clients turned to them. Measures
adopted by the government some five years ago, in particular cut in duties
on import of ships for dismantling, had kindled hopes of the revival of
this industry as it had started to attract entrepreneurs once again. The
steel re-rolling mills in the country received 0.500 million tons of scrap
from 75 old ships, which were berthed at Gaddani yard between September
2008 to May 2009 for dismantling. The
present capacity of steel production in the country is about four million
tons against a demand of over six million tons and the deficit is met
through imports. It is envisaged to raise the steel production to 15
million tons by 2015. Presently, steel production units are working below
capacity for want of raw material and slack demand. Spread
along BalochistanÕs Gaddani beach, about 50 kilometres north-west of
Karachi, ship-breaking had started in the region much before PakistanÕs
independence in August, 1947. However, the industry registered a
spectacular growth after PakistanÕs independence, enabling it to
gate-crash into the club of top ship-breakers of the world by the mid
sixties. In
1985-86, the industry helped the country in making an annual saving of
Rs1,500 million, which would otherwise have been spent on import of iron
and steel. It earned another Rs500 million in foreign exchange through the
export of surplus ship scrap, second hand machinery, generators,
air-conditioners and other equipment. It also contributed to the national
exchequer, during that financial year, an amount of over Rs1,035 million
in customs duty, sales tax and income-tax. Before
independence, Gaddani beach lacked the necessary infrastructure facilities
like carpeted roads and utilities like electricity, potable water,
telephone and even arrangements for providing first aid or medical help to
the workers. The place was uninhabited and there was an acute shortage of
labour as well. Majority of workers were uneducated, unskilled and
migratory. Even businessmen, who entered the trade, possessed little
knowledge of the industry, but they were infused with self-confidence. Initiation
by countries of a process of replacing their unserviceable WW-II vintage
war ships with modern and sophisticated vessels provided an international
market for the sale of obsolete ships. A
number of other factors also contributed to the rapid growth of the
ship-breaking industry in Pakistan. Among others, these included a growing
demand for iron and steel for the countryÕs rapidly developing mills,
engineering, and other ancillary industries, which consumed iron, steel as
well as other non-ferrous metals. The
disruption of normal trade relations with India following the 1965 and
1971 wars, discontinuity in supply of steel and iron products from
PakistanÕs only steel mill at Chittagong after the emergence of
Bangladesh, and massive devaluation of rupee in 1972 made import of iron
and steel products much costlier. This provided a chance to the
ship-breaking industry to meet national demand for raw material. The
years between 1969 and 1983 are considered to be the golden period of
ship-breaking industry in Pakistan. It was during this period that the
activities witnessed a boom and this industry beat many of its
international rivals. The
writer is a freelance columnist based in Islamabad.
Is
the PML-N serious about inviting the military and judiciary in national
politics? By
Salman Abid What
are the Sharifs up to? This is the question that comes to oneÕs mind
while looking at the statements they have given in The
political process in Pakistan never gained a sound footing, especially
during the military regimes such as that of Gen Ziaul Haq the agenda of
de-politicisation very badly affected the political process. The
process suffered a huge setback during the long military regimes, starting
form Gen Ayub Khan and ending (hopefully) with Gen Pervez Musharraf.
Direct and indirect intervention of military in different eras in politics
resulted in weakening of democratic and political institutions. As a
matter of fact, militaryÕs role under democratic governments has remained
dominated. During
Gen Pervez MusharrafÕs regime major political forces Ñ PPP and PMLN Ñ
became victims of military leadership and later also admitted of their own
mistakes in national politics. That was why both the parties signed the
Charter of Democracy and resolved not to repeat the same mistakes. They
showed strong commitment for strengthening political institutions in the
country and avoid any military and any other non-democratic forcesÕ
intervention. Once
driven out of power, Nawaz Sharif and his party strongly criticised
military role in politics, to the extent that his being vocal against the
military regime of Gen Pervez Musharraf was seen as a personal reaction.
But today, their stated position seems to have changed as, interestingly,
the PMLN leadership has suggested engaging the military and judiciary to
cope with the current political and economic crisis in the country. In
Punjab Chief Minister Shahbaz SharifÕs words, ÒPakistan is in a critical
phase and is facing internal and external threatsÓ and that Òcollective
efforts are needed to resolve the problems faced by the countryÓ. One
major question that arises here is that if military and judicial
leadership becomes a party in national politics then their credibility and
neutrality would be at stake. And more importantly, what message are we
giving to the international community? The
issue here is the strengthening of institutions under the rule of law. Can
we justify military leadership and judiciary sitting with political
forces? As a matter of fact, the Constitution does not allow such forces
to directly intervene in political decision-making process. Why are we so
reluctant to take decisions though parliament and others political
institutions? Parliament
is the best place for political decision-making and all parliamentary
parties are major stakeholders. By justifying military and judiciaryÕs
participation in political decisions we admit our political failure. One
agrees with Shahbaz Sharif in that the country is facing a serious
political and economic crisis, requiring a political consensus. But, if we
agree with ShahbazÕs view, why did we fail in the past in forging
military and civilian collaboration? Ironically,
our political forces talk about democracy and elimination of military role
during the military regime, but once under democratic rule some political
forces try to engage the military. Actually, the idea put forward by the
PMLN is still not very clear. If it only prescribes consultation then we
already have the defense committee of the parliament where matters about
national security issue can be discussed. Secondly,
the President, Prime Minster and chief ministers meet regularly with
military leadership as per requirement. So, when forums are available why
are we insisting on inviting these forces? If
we are talking about some idea on the lines of the National Security
Council, we should not forget that the idea had failed during Gen
MusharrafÕs regime. The positive aspect is that a majority of the
political leadership has criticised the idea of PMLN and declared that
this step would be dangerous for the country as the idea is
unconstitutional. We cannot link this idea with 1973 ConstitutionÕs
Article 62 and 68. In the past, the experience of military and civil
leadership working together provoked conflicts instead of resolving them. Is
it a message to the establishment forces for jointly working once again in
a clear shift in PMLNÕs own policy? This is interesting that the PMLN
leadership has strongly criticised MQM leadershipÕs views on military to
play a pro-active role to resolve the crisis. If the MQM is wrong, how the
PMLN can be right on this issue? This can also be seen as an attempt in
the direction of holding midterm elections. It seems the PMLN has been
left in isolation and major political forces have reservations to engage
other forces. PMLN
fears the ÔestablishmentÕ is forging an alliance of political forces
against the PMLN and is also conscious about the efforts of Maulana
Fazalur Rehman for the joint alliance of opposition parties. The
partyÕs leadership and party should seriously evaluate their stance
because they have changed their slogan of democracy and civilian rule to
military and judiciaryÕs role in politics. If the PMLN wants to build
social harmony and resolve countryÕs acute political and economic
problems it must try to engage more with political forces. There is no
other option in a democratic framework. The writer is a political analyst and human rights campaigner. He can be reached at salmanabidpk@gmail.com Drive
against encroachments notwithstanding, big cities like Karachi and Lahore
have little space for pedestrians Our
large cities have become unfriendly places for common people who prefer to
walk. There is evidence to establish this undesirable fact. Sighting
school children holding hands of their parents in a bid to cross the busy
Shahrah-e-Faisal in Karachi every morning is a petrifying experience. Children
hurtle across the honking vehicles to reach schools across the street.
Thanks to the ill-conceived concept of Ôsignal With
no speed limit regimes worth the name, drivers enjoy field day by
accelerating vehicles well beyond safety limits. And the ultimate brunt is
borne by the hapless pedestrians. Two ladies died a few months ago when
two vehicles knocked them down at a crossing in Defence Society in
Karachi. The women were waiting on the sidewalk for bus when the carefree
boys lost control of their cars. Such incidents have taken place in
affluent localities of the city. If
one looks at the rising number of cars in our cities, it will be very
difficult to believe that Pakistan is a poor, indebted and calamity-struck
country. The swarming vehicles exert enormous pressure on the available
right of way to facilitate their movement. At times, this pressure
succeeds in annexing the shared alignment normally kept for other modes of
transport as well as encroaching on the space for pedestrian movement. In
more congested areas, road widening schemes are undertaken as a solution
to create more room for cars. In many cases, the widening also makes it
difficult for pedestrians to cross roads as barriers and curb grills are
installed to divide the roads. Many
cities and towns in our country are located in warm weather zones. For
pedestrians to walk long distances to reach an overhead crossing Ñ where
it exists Ñ is unlikely. Needless to say, roads and streets are almost
impossible to cross due to the so called road ÔimprovementsÕ. As
walking space has vanished, construction of barriers completely disrupts
the movement of common people along thoroughfares. Residents and passersby
along Saidpur Road in Rawalpindi/Islamabad face enormous problems due to
encroachments that block pedestrian movement. VehiclesÕ speed in the area
remains alarmingly high leading to accidents. There
is nothing wrong in owning and using a car provided drivers abide by
traffic laws, rules and regulations. In our case, the opposite actually
happens. Men in the driving seat consider themselves on the top of the
world. Drivers
of public transit vehicles also belong to the same tribe. Lawless driving
attitudes are routinely displayed by drivers of government vehicles, water
tankers, oil tankers, police force and goods transport vehicles. Young
boys and under-aged teenagers can be observed speeding along the streets
on cars and motor cycles. Many pedestrians have been severely injured and
in some cases even lost their lives. Politicians
claim to have invested heavily in the urban transport system. Negligible
input is intended to help pedestrians. No attention is given to the
problems of pedestrians which are compounding by each passing day. Absence
of traffic management on interchanges to allow pedestrians to cross the
roads; prevention of parking of vehicles on footpaths/side walks as a
routine; etc, are few important issues that that need to be looked into. The
number of hit-and-run accidents has increased in the cities. Many
important streets in Karachi and other cities have surveillance cameras
with meticulous documentation capacity. Little or no benefit is drawn from
evidence collected from these devices in the prosecution of traffic
related crimes or prevention. Many times, the death of a pedestrian
results in conflict. Pedestrians
are usually low income groups. Steps have to be taken without delay to
ensure space for them. Traffic education programmes with a focus on safe
driving and road usage must be initiated.
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Libya that I started to sit down and write about the sham that are the Ôglobal
governanceÕ institutions. It should not be lost on anyone with an
interest in international affairs that it has been 10 years since the UNSC
approved the invasion and occupation of Afghanistan. Those who supported
that decision probably believe that the Afghan people are well on their
way to establishing full-blown democracy and are enjoying unbridled levels
of freedom, no less. I suppose they will argue that such an international
mission of conscience has to be launched at least once a decade. 
intelligentsia. The Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) had already received
a good deal of stick even before DavisÕs release, and rightfully so. The
CIA has for decades been at the forefront of every major imperialist
adventure across the world, employs unspeakable methods in the most
cynical ways, and yet remains the most unaccountable government
institution since the inception of the modern state. But in the aftermath
of the Davis fiasco the CIA can only be condemned as much as its Pakistani
counterpart, the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI).
ot
been served by the ISIÕs cutting of a deal with the CIA. The judiciary
too, the darling of the right, the other ÔincorruptibleÕ institution,
has also been exposed. The establishmentÕs delicate public relations act
is teetering on the brink. 
releasing US national Raymond Davis. These steps , it is believed, would
pave the way for far-reaching impacts on PakistanÕs struggling economy
and ensure external inflows from multilateral and bilateral creditors to
keep budget deficit within the desired limits. 
proper load distribution and broad range unlike the present structure
which has narrow base, and ever increasing rates. 
solid waste management (SWM) being one of them. Implications of scattered
solid waste are many. Developed nations have managed their solid waste by
improved collection and disposal techniques. 
expectations due to the results of the 2009
yard for dismantling during the first six months of the current financial
year. After the financial year 2009-2010, Pakistan has received such a
large number of ships for the second time during the last two decades. 
the recent past. But first let us peep into Pakistan political history
which is marked by military regimes. 
free corridorsÕ, the mean velocities of cars and other vehicles have
increased tremendously. 