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crisis Decision
time Yeh Woh comment End
of the strategic alliance?
crisis For Ahmad Ali Chandio, the loss of his standing cotton crop is meaningless as everyone in his area has suffered heavy economic losses due to torrential monsoon rains followed by floods due to breaches in drain canals. Most of the rural economy in Pakistan is based on agriculture and the recent rains and floods in Sindh have badly hit the rural agriculture economy. Both landlords and peasants have suffered colossal economic losses. With a land holding of not more than 25 acres and cotton, sugarcane and chilly crops under flood water, Chandio is now even more worried about his future as the sowing season of the next crop of wheat has started from the first of October and water level is still not receding. Living with a family of eight members, Chandio has no earning source. The government is not making any serious efforts to drain out the flood water from the area, whereas the flood water of drainage canals including Left Bank Outfall Drain (LBOD) coming from Sanghar, Mirpurkhas districts was still flowing in this area at the downstream. Living in a village near Kunri town in Umarkot district, Chandio is a small landlord of the area, but floods have forced this modest landlord to live like a pauper in a tent on the roadside near his village along with his family and peasants of his land who are mostly scheduled caste Hindus (Dalit). “My house is totally submerged under 6-8 feet floodwater. I could not salvage my household items. I tried to load essential items in my tractor trolley, but the flood water coming from all sides of the house and heavy rains did not allow me to drive my tractor out. You can see my tractor trolley loaded with household items standing in the water,” he pointed in the direction of his village. “We saved only our lives in boats on the Chand Raat (night of Eidul Fitr),” he tells TNS. “My relatives in
Mirpurkhas have provided us some raw ration and other essential items. They
had offered me to live with them, but even houses and streets of Mirpurkhas
are still inundated with rainwater, so we preferred to live here.” Chandio said his peasants had also sown red chilies on two acres, which are also completely destroyed. Kunri, considered as the largest market of red chilies in the South Asia, is famous for production of high quality red chilies and the products are exported to many countries. But now the growers as well as traders of the chilies are also disappointed due to heavy damage to the crop. The chilies market in Kunri town gives a deserted look despite the fact the season is at its peak from September, but the number of traders and their vehicles is very thin in the market. According to the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) figures, about 2.2 million acres of the cropped land was destroyed because of floods in Sindh, Badin being on the top with over 375,000 acres of agriculture land with standing crops of cotton and sugarcane destroyed. Sanghar district was on the second number in the list of agriculture land losses with a loss of over 356,000 acres. The other worst hit areas are Benazirabad, Mirpurkhas, Thatta and Khairpur. The NDMA statistics point out 6.8 million acres of land was destroyed by the recent floods. According to the UN estimates‚ the floods have wiped out 73 per cent of the standing crops‚ 36 per cent of the livestock heads and 67 per cent of food stocks in the 13 worst affected districts of Sindh. Most of the districts affected by the floods are cotton growing areas and the crop was almost ready for harvesting. In some areas, first picking of the cotton was also held. The unprecedented rains have hit hard the cotton crop. “We estimate total loss to agriculture sector to the tune of more than Rs270 billion, including Rs134 billion loss of cotton only,” says Abdul Majeed Nizamani, President Sindh Abadgar Board. Talking to TNS, Nizamani says the second most affected crop is sugarcane, whereas rice crop has also been destroyed in these areas. Rains have also affected the quality of the cotton, which has caused concern to the cotton traders and textile and yarn makers. Sindh’s cotton is considered of good quality and fetches a better price as the crop becomes ready quite earlier than that of the Punjab. Most of Phutti (cotton with seed) coming in the market is of inferior quality because rains and flood water have badly affected it and workers are picking the cotton from rotten plants in the standing water. “The heavy decline in Phutti production would cause shortage of raw cotton in the market and textile mills would be compelled to import cotton,” fears Nasim Usman, Chairman of Karachi Cotton Brokers Forum. Talking to TNS, Usman says the main sufferers of all this economic losses are the growers and farmers. According to him, over 2.2 million bales of raw cotton would be short this year, which would put Pakistan in a difficult situation to meet its annual production target of 15 million bales of raw cotton for the year 2011-12. Earlier, Pakistan expected a bumper crop of cotton and exporters were planning to book orders from abroad. Usman says usually
two-third of Phutti contains Benola (cotton seed), which has also been
destroyed. The seed is used for extracting vegetable (cooking) oil and its
waste is used as fodder for cattle. He estimated a loss to the tune of Rs15
billion only on account of destruction of cotton seed. The losses of raw
cotton are estimated to be around Rs55 billion. A large number of ginning
factories in Mirpurkhas, Umerkot and Sanghar district have been closed down
due to floods in the area and damage to the machinery. The remaining
factories do not have enough cotton to process, thus they are expected to
work for the next one month to process the remaining Phutti. Sugarcane, the second largest cash crop in Sindh, has also suffered heavy losses due to floods, even though it requires a large quantity of water to give good quality sweetener. Earlier, experts believed the sugarcane crop would not suffer heavy losses, but due to delay in draining out of the flood and rainwater, which is polluted and saline, the crop in many areas has almost been destroyed. The sugar mills in the affected areas have also been damaged as floodwater has hit the machineries and boilers. It is difficult to steam the boilers even at the start of crushing season. Sindh Abadgar Board estimates economic losses to sugarcane growers at Rs25 billion. The damage to other crops and vegetables is also incalculable. Nizamani of Sindh Abadgar Board estimates the loss of over a million tonne to paddy or rice worth Rs70 billion. The provincial government has still not released the figures of the actual economic losses, as it is waiting for reports from Asian Development Bank and other donors. However, Sindh Chief Minister Syed Qaim Ali Shah, in a statement at Sukkur on Monday, said the recent rains had caused loss of Rs457 billion in 21 districts of the province; the losses were Rs13 billion higher than the damages suffered during the last year’s floods. A large number of cattle have died due to diseases in flood-hit areas, which has created shortage of animals, particularly for forthcoming Eid-ul-Azha. In Badin’s cattle Mandi (market), the traders can be seen purchasing cattle in large quantity at throw away prices. Profiteers are exploiting the situation because the cattle are weaker due to absence of fodder. According to the NDMA latest data, 112,312 cattle head have perished till October 5. Even the milk prices have increased because of heavy livestock loss. The milk which was available for Rs40 per liter before the floods is not available even for Rs60 per liter. During the rains, its price shot up to Rs80 a liter. Experts fear food shortage in many affected districts. The rates of vegetable have also increased manifold because of floods. The growers demand government support to overcome heavy losses, saying mere declaring the flood affected areas as calamity-hit would not solve their problems. The government should announce a complete relief package for the small growers, demands Nizamani. He says the package should also include rescheduling of private bank’s loans and providing zero markup fresh loans to the farmers so that they can recover from the losses. Subsidies on fertilizers and pesticides and cash grants are some other demands of the farmers.
Decision time A driver of the FG Girls Higher Secondary School, G-9/2, Islamabad hurled abuses at teacher Mrs Waliyat (not real name) in the presence of dozens of her students on the school premises when she stopped him from insulting a school maid. Mrs Waliyat registered a complaint with the principal, who had already received several complaints against the driver from girl students and teachers alike. On the request of the principal, dismissal and transfer orders were issued by the Federal Education Director, but the driver, having clout in the workers union, could neither be dismissed nor transferred. The driver was seen roaming around freely in the school. The whole administrative system of the federal capital and even the police had failed miserably to bring him to book. Finally Mrs Waliyat came to know about the Ombudsperson for Protection of Women against Harassment at Workplace. She registered a complaint with the Ombudsperson, who issued dismissal orders of the driver, after holding two hearings and recording witnesses. The driver was dismissed from service this time as flouting the order of the Ombudsperson is contempt of court. This was the second case decided by the Ombudsperson, who was appointed in December 2010 after the promulgation of the Protection of Women against Harassment at Workplace Act 2010. Currently about two dozens cases of harassment are under trial with the Ombudsperson, and three of them have been decided. The office of Ombudsperson has received cases of harassment from Allama Iqbal Open University, Quaid-e-Azam University, Pakistan International Airlines, the Federal Education Department, Pakistan Broadcasting Corporation, PTV, Planning and Development Division, and two cases from the corporate sector. Currently two separate laws
— Amendment to the Pakistan Penal Code (PPC), Section 509 and the
Protection of Women against Harassment at Workplace — deal with harassment
cases. The anti-harassment act 2010 is confined to workplace, and its purpose
is to provide speedy justice to victims of harassment at the workplace as the
PPC Section 509 involves registration of an FIR and subsequent lengthy court
and police procedures. However, PPC Section 509 provides legal cover to women
against harassment at any place — workplace, bus-stand, markets etc. A code of conduct has been defined for all organisations to implement anti-harassment act in their establishments. The code features the formation of an internal committee to hear cases of harassment and displaying copies of the code in English as well as in languages understood by the majority of employees at conspicuous places. In most of cases registered with the office of the Ombudsperson, women have accused their bosses and their fellow colleagues of harassment. The women who have registered complaints against harassment are in fact harbingers of change because they have risked their jobs, careers and reputation by taking the daring step of speaking out against the curse of harassment. Before the year of 2010 women had no legal cover to act against those who harass them, and most of the working women had accepted this curse as a part of job. Several women had quit their jobs, and others had surrendered themselves to this evil to earn a living. Another working woman based in Islamabad has also filed a case of harassment against one of her bosses and his colleagues. She tells TNS the situation regarding sexual harassments at government offices is pathetic as compared to private sector. She says bosses having political influences and job security consider it their right to sexually abuse the women working under them. She says sometimes women also give sexual favours to their bosses for promotions, adding: “I do not blame such women because they are forced by their bosses to indulge in such abusive activities.” An employee of the PIA working at a senior post in Islamabad has recently won the case and the man she accused of harassing her has been imposed Rs100,000 fine. She says filing a case against her boss in the office of Ombudsperson for Protection of Women against Harassment at Workplace was a big challenge and she had to face mental torture at her workplace all the time when her case was under hearing with the ombudsperson. The brave woman, who finally got justice after one year of war of nerves, says, “I have succeeded in setting an example for the women who face harassment and do not fight against it due to fears of losing jobs, family pressures and social taboos.” Ombudsperson Musarat Hilali tells TNS, “We are here to deliver justice, not for gender discrimination. The number of cases is increasing as we deliver justice and our verdicts get space in the media. I have written to provinces and Gilgit-Baltistan to appoint ombudspersons under the anti-harassment act. We hope this process will be completed soon.” For the implementation of anti-harassment rules at workplace, she says, a team has been formed to visit airports, hospitals, government departments, corporate office etc. Khadija Ali, legal council programme coordinator at a local NGO working on the women’s issues, says women can use mobile phones for voice and video recording of any incident of harassment. “Moreover, circumstantial evidence is also important. Nobody knows what is happening behind a closed door, but a women employee should note down events of harassment.” The anti-harassment act will go a long way in improving economic conditions of the country because the women, who are 51 per cent of total population, will join the national workforce without any fear of harassment and could utilise their best capabilities. But the implementation of this act is a big challenger for the government and the women employees, who would have to play a vital role to this effect.
Yeh
Woh What’s common between doctors and motor mechanics? Everything, except knowledge: some mechanics know their subjects better than doctors know theirs. And some doctors know more about investing in hedge funds than the subject knowledge of all the mechanics of Khadda Market put together. This groundbreaking discovery was made by a friend who had a road accident after which he spent a year in various Islamabad hospitals, and his beloved Hyundai in sundry workshops, being opened, tweaked, parts added, parts removed, left in bandages, then tinkered some more. Both of them survived — God be praised — and recognising the similarity of experiences; my friend has developed a new kinship with his car, and a new found love for God, who he says was the only one at work in the hospitals and auto workshops he frequented. He acknowledges progress
made in the fields of medical and automobile sciences but notes from his
experience that God’s will trumps every technology and tool devised by man
inside a hospital or workshop. Take for instance his third operation, which
was to ascertain what went wrong in the second, that followed an exploratory
first operation: he was lying unconscious, a complex network of wires and
cables attached to his limbs, his abdomen opened in the middle and being
probed by two pairs of hands holding cold steel gadgets when the electricity
failed and the surgeons left for a quick tea break. “Who was watching over
my exposed guts at that time?” he asks rhetorically, closing his eyes in
reverence and pointing skywards with his index finger, as a discreet hint for
the listener. But let me begin from the top. Similarities between the two sets of scientists (though some in both camps prefer to be known as artists) start with a signature appearance. Any man or woman with a stethoscope hanging round the neck or sticking out of a front pocket is sure to be a doctor, and those wearing stetho AND bathroom slippers are surgeons. Now, there are nurses and other paramedical staff who like to copy the doc but their uniforms betray their lowly status. A doctor never wears uniform. Same goes for the mechanic. A soiled and greased shalwar qameez or shalwar bunyan, and deposits of hydrocarbons mixed with dirt in the fingernails is enough self-introduction for a professional mechanic. Formal education in both professions is considered a mere formality. The ‘artists’ in particular are dismissive of classroom learning. “I learnt at the feet of my ustaad and Allah be thanked now any engine, every engine, opens up its heart to me,” says the junior school dropout mechanic. “Where others hear a heartbeat I hear each of the four cylinders talking to me individually,” says the passionate doctor who lost his degree during the floods. And both have plenty of stories to tell about their more learned colleagues who left a tool inside before stitching an incision or bolting up the engine cowling. Both employ a fairly simple means of diagnosis: start with the remedy at hand, or the remedy the practitioner specialises in. If it doesn’t work, try others until the subject gets better … or expires. The former is all credit to the professional and the latter is God’s will. In case of a doctor the God’s will part is hard to refute because the challenger risks being shoved out of the circle of Islam and a possible meeting with a Mumtaz Qadri impersonator. But the mechanic usually has a harder time convincing a customer that the car died of divine will. A smart mechanic, therefore, has to install a life-support mechanism in the engine that allows the customer to drive the car back home, and then nowhere. Specifically, not back. Once they take in a subject, both are quick to cut it open so it can’t be taken to the next shop; frees up the practitioner to rope in more business; and also because there is more prestige and money in cutting them up. For instance, childbirth was considered a natural, though painful process until the advent of anaesthesia. Now a majority of babies are scooped out of the slit tummies of mothers dreaming happy dreams under the influence of drugs, and the procedure is preferred by all parties involved, except for the baby whose consent is not legally binding on doctors and mothers anyway. And it is always a good idea to accompany your loved people and cars during the remedy procedure, just in case a practitioner gives in to the temptation of removing or replacing some good parts for their market value, while fixing another. masudalam@yahoo.com
comment Pakistan’s desperate efforts to find a workable formula to deal with the issue of extremism and terrorism could find a new direction if the 13-point resolution unanimously adopted by the recent All Parties Conferences (APC) and calling for a dialogue with the local militants is implemented. The most important question now is whether the resolution would be implemented. If the two unanimous resolutions of the Parliament adopted on October 22, 2008 and May 13, 2011 and focusing on security issues couldn’t be implemented until now, where is the guarantee that concrete measures would be taken to implement the resolution passed by the APC. If the past is any guide, the APC resolution may be forgotten in due course of time just like the Parliament resolutions. The resolution backed by the country’s political and military leaders said Pakistan must initiate dialogue with a view to negotiating “peace with our own people in the tribal areas.” It was obvious that “our own people” meant the Pakistani Taliban, though the term wasn’t used. The mention of only the tribal areas, which in practice means the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), was strange as militancy and military operations aren’t restricted to the tribal territory bordering Afghanistan. Militancy has engulfed many districts of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa, particularly Swat and rest of Malakand division where military action was carried out against the militants not only in 2009 but also prior to that. Troops in large numbers are still deployed there and it isn’t known when the civil administration and the police would be able to handle the situation to allow the soldiers to be withdrawn. Two peace accords negotiated with the militants had collapsed and it would be a difficult proposition to secure the backing of the local political leadership and the general public in Swat and the adjoining districts for another agreement with the Maulana Fazlullah-led Malakand division chapter of the outlawed Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP). The resolution recommended
that a proper mechanism be put in place for negotiating peace with those
fighting the state. However, no timeframe and guideline for setting up the
mechanism was specified. This could generate controversy in view of our
polarized political situation. The resolution proposed constituting a parliamentary committee after reaching consensus in the upcoming session of the Parliament for overseeing the implementation of the APC resolution. The committee was also tasked to ensure implementation of the earlier resolutions of the Parliament on security issues and the recommendation of the Joint Parliamentary Committee on National Security. A good point in the resolution is that the committee would be making public the progress in its work on a monthly basis. The APC brought together more than 50 politicians and the three top serving Pakistan Army generals including the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Committee Gen Khalid Shamim Wyne, Chief of the Army Staff Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani and the ISI Director General Lt Gen Ahmad Shuja Pasha. It had representation from 30 political parties and religious groups. Obviously, the government and its coalition partners had the highest representation with Prime Minister Yusuf Raza Gilani chairing the conference and his allies Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, Asfandyar Wali Khan and the MQM’s Haider Abbas Rizvi giving him company. The opposition was fully represented, among others by Nawaz Sharif, Maulana Fazlur Rahman, Syed Munawar Hasan, Imran Khan and Mahmood Khan Achakzai. Both elected and unelected politicians were there, so were tribal parliamentarians, minority representatives and leaders of progressive and nationalist parties and sectarian groups. As it was an all-parties conference, almost every party worth its name was invited even if it has never won a seat in the assemblies and may not be able to do so in future. The BNP-Mengal and the National Party, both based in volatile Balochistan, boycotted the conference by arguing that the government should have convened an APC on the targetted killings, sectarian violence and kidnappings in their province. On the surface, the political and military leadership closed ranks at the APC in the face of the US pressure following its accusations that the Pakistan Army and the ISI were using the Haqqani Network of the Afghan Taliban as a proxy for strategic reasons in Afghanistan. The resolution was said to have been unanimously adopted, but disagreements remain and would gradually emerge due to the fact that some of the political parties view the situation differently and aren’t convinced at all that there are no safe havens for Afghan Taliban, particularly the Haqqanis, in Pakistan. And rather than talking to the TTP, they would want the security forces to go after it wherever its cadres are based, particularly in North Waziristan. Hailing the APC resolution is politically expedient and emotionally rewarding, but getting it implemented seems almost impossible in the prevailing circumstances. To start with, it would be technically illegal and difficult to justify while negotiating with an organisation like the TTP that has been proscribed in Pakistan and declared terrorist by the US and some of its allies. If a way out is found as we in Pakistan often do by circumventing the law and negotiate with individual TTP commanders and not the organisation, substantial homework would have to be done to fit the process into the tribal jirgas with strong representation of the local elders and clerics. More importantly, all top government functionaries, including Prime Minister Gilani and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa Chief Minister Ameer Haider Hoti, have been repeatedly saying even before the APC that talks could be held with the militants if they lay down arms and accept the writ of the state. The APC resolution didn’t assert this point, but the government would find it difficult to backtrack on this basic principle. On the other hand, militants in no way would surrender and drop their arms due to lack of trust in the government and the military. This could become the main hurdle for the process to take off. Finding credible interlocutors, mediators and guarantors has been a major disadvantage in Pakistan as there aren’t many men of stature who could be trusted by all sides and could make peace accords or deals work. Past peace accords in FATA and Swat failed because no proper mechanism for monitoring and implementing the agreements were put in place and there was no punishment or fine for the violators. However, this is something that would be dealt with once new peace deals are made, and which at present seem unlikely. Two peace agreements, one with Hafiz Gul Bahadur-led militants in North Waziristan and the other with Maulvi Nazeer in Wana and Shakai areas of South Waziristan, are still intact because these commanders aren’t part of TTP and refrain from fighting the state. But these accords could fall apart if the US continues its drone attacks in their areas and the government finally succumbs to international pressure and orders military action in North Waziristan. That implementation of the new policy as defined by the APC would be a huge challenge isn’t lost on the militants. Maulvi Faqir Mohammad, the Bajaur-based deputy leader of the TTP, in recent interviews from his hideout in the border region of Afghanistan and Pakistan, while welcoming offer of peace talks pointed out that negotiations cannot succeed until after the withdrawal of US-led Nato forces from Afghanistan in 2014. It meant he was linking the move in Pakistan with the situation in Afghanistan. Sirajuddin, spokesman for the Swat Taliban, said they would enter peace talks with a one-point agenda and that would be enforcement of Shariah in Malakand division. The ANP-PPP coalition government in Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa could argue that it has already done that by taking steps to enforce the Nizam-i-Adl Regulation in the area, appointing Qazis, or judges in the courts, and constituting the appellate court of Darul Qaza comprising high court judges to hear appeals against convictions by lower courts. The central TTP, headed by Hakimullah Mahsud, would have the final say in the matter, but one fails to understand how negotiations would be held with someone who is on the most wanted list of the US. Besides, the TTP is fractured after having lost its founder Baitullah Mahsud and expecting it to speak with one voice and be able to implement agreements could turn out to be unrealistic. No doubt military operations won’t end the conflict in Pakistan and all efforts need to be made to find peaceful solution of the problem. Giving peace a chance as the APC resolved ought to be the foremost principle while coping with militancy, but the challenge is to find ways and means of making it happen. That won’t be easy due to our unwise policies in the past, the mistakes that were made and the foreign interference that dictated the manner in which this issue was handled.
End
of the strategic alliance? After more than half a century of partnership between the military establishments of the US and Pakistan, the two stand estranged for the time being, if not permanently. India’ military role in Afghanistan following the withdrawal of the US forces from the region is at the heart of the recent US-Pakistan tension. The conference of 58 political parties demonstrated that the military and civil leadership of Pakistan are on the same page over the issues of Afghanistan policy and ties with the US. Notwithstanding the US posturing that its Afghan war is meant to eliminate the terror machine of al-Qaeda, the US has long-term strategic plans in the region for which it has built its military bases in Bagram, Kandahar and Jalalabad. The US efforts in the region are not targeted against al-Qaeda alone but against all Islamists, whether they pose any security threat to the US or not. Thus, it is expected to reduce the number of its troops in Afghanistan in near future, but not completely withdraw from the country. Afghanistan’s importance Afghanistan is of strategic importance for the US strategic interests in the region for a variety of reasons. It gives the US a position of advantage to keep tabs on Iran and a base to attack Iran, if required; to use the bases to fight Islamists forces in the Muslim countries across the Middle East; to counter the growing influence of China in Central and South Asia; and to contain a resurgent Russia under Putin. Pakistan, with its nuclear programme and strong Islamist groups, is itself a major concern for American interests. The world is witnessing a new cold war: America vs the Islamist forces in the Muslim-dominant countries, and India is one of the major US allies in this campaign. The US compulsions However, the Obama Administration, faced with falling popularity at home and growing American public opinion against the Afghan war, wants to drastically scale down the number of its troops in Afghanistan by 2014. On the other hand, the Pentagon does not want to leave the region till complete victory. The Republicans, as per their tradition, are backing the US army as could be seen in the recent statements of the Republican presidential candidates, including Mitt Romney, who has fired salvo at Pakistan for its alleged support to Taliban. The US army is angry for
the nosedive its image has suffered in its battle against the Taliban. In
recent weeks, the Taliban have acquired some sort of capability to challenge
the aerial superiority of the US forces as they shot down a military
helicopter carrying Seals and later a drone in South Waziristan. The recent
attacks on Nato headquarters and US Embassy also belied the claims of
American success in Afghanistan. It is humiliation for the US army to leave
as a defeated army, while Obama cannot politically afford to prolong its stay
in Afghanistan. Indian role The worrisome issue for Pakistan is that the US wants to hand over Afghanistan to its new strategic ally, India. Pakistan Army Chief Gen Ashfaq Parvez Kayani says Pakistan is not ready for the US withdrawal from Afghanistan in 2014. This is because the Pakistan army does not want the Indian presence in Afghanistan in place of the US and Nato. Pakistan is not willing to accept the Indian role in Afghanistan. The Pakistan army does not want its enemy (the Indian army) on both eastern and western fronts. This is the main reason of discord between Islamabad and the US. Why
Pakistan can’t be a US The US is not willing to hand over Afghanistan to Pakistan army for a variety of reasons, one being the fact that Pakistan is not viewed as a dependable ally in American war against Islamists. One, all the American aid to Pakistan during the last more than 60 years could not turn Pakistanis pro-America. Instead, the people of this country have strong anti-US sentiments. Most importantly, the Pakistan army leadership is constrained to take action against the Afghan Islamists (Taliban) for the reason the rank and file of the army is pro-Islamist; the army generals won’t be able to keep the institution united and motivated in an effort that is viewed as anti-Islamic by the junior officers. Already, strong resentment is found within the army over the May 2 US attack in Abbottabad. In order to meet the American demands, the Pakistani generals can’t go beyond a certain limit and that limit has already been achieved. In case the US launches a drive against Iran (declared by the US as a member of axis of evil) from its bases in Afghanistan, Pakistan army cannot take part in this war largely because Shia army officers, who are in large numbers, have strong emotional attachment with Iran and at least 15-20 per cent Shia population of the country would be up in arms against the US and its allies. New contours of Pak-US ties As a result of its conflict of interests with the US in Afghanistan, Pakistan has lost the status of non-Nato ally of America. Admiral Mike Mullen said ‘the partnership approach between the US and Pakistan would be hard to revive now.’ It means that Pakistan would no longer be a strategic partner of the US though the two may have transactional nature of relationship. The US scholars and diplomats visiting Pakistan in recent weeks have indicated in their private conversations with this scribe that a section of the US Congress is of the view that Pakistan should be left alone. Although soon after the All Parties Conference in Islamabad, the US assured Pakistan that its troops will not enter the northwestern territory, former army chief Mirza Aslam Beg says Pakistan had deployed its troops along the Afghan border on September 25 to preempt any incursion from the other side. For the time being, it seems the two countries will maintain some sort of relationship. Pakistan still provides a route for more than 70 per cent of the supplies to the US and Nato forces in Afghanistan. A sudden closure of the route would be catastrophic for the forces in Afghanistan. The US is developing alternate routes through Uzbekistan but that will take time. Possible punishment The US, with its majority vote at the IMF, has already got suspended the Fund’s financial assistance to Pakistan. The possible extreme steps the US may take against Pakistan include: the suspension of US civilian financial aid to Pakistan; the suspension of development loans from international financial institutions; curbs on the Pakistani exports to the US; and the imposition of economic sanctions against it through the UN. Even if the Obama administration does not adopt extreme position, the level of cooperation will decline between the two countries in the coming days. Pakistan’s alternate policy Seeing growing strategic cooperation between the US and India, Pakistan has strengthened its relations with China and Iran. Pakistan is set to become strategic regional alliance of Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) of which it is an observer member. Despite strong US opposition, Pakistan has moved ahead on the gas pipeline plan with Iran and by 2014 the gas supplies will start flowing into the country. China and Iran cannot compensate the financial losses Pakistan will incur with the suspension of the US aid and economic cooperation, but more than 75 per cent of the Pakistani population will not be directly affected by this suspension because they already live in miserable poverty. The major losers will be big businesses and the ruling elite, including the military leadership, which hogs up the bulk of the financial assistance. On account of the heavy dependence of the Pakistani elite on the US, there are many who fear that the present crisis between the US and Pakistan governments will last long. It is believed that the Obama administration is acting under the pressure of electoral politics on the eve of 2013 presidential election. On the other hand, the Pakistan military leadership will benefit from this hard position vis-a-vis America as it will help cool down strong emotions in the rank and file in the aftermath of the Abbottabad operation and the US drone attacks. Once the compulsions of the US Presidential elections subside, the two sides, possibly after moderating their respective stance, may be able to resurrect their ties. For the time being, however, the Pak-US partnership lies in tatters around the rugged mountains of Hindukush. |
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